UFC 296 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Casey O’Neill vs. Ariane Lipski: Bet This Big Plus-Money Total (Saturday, December 16)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC flyweight Ariane Lipski of Brazil
Casey O'Neill vs. Ariane Lipski Odds
The middle portion of the UFC 296 fight card will kick off on ESPN2 with Casey O'Neill vs. Ariane Lipski.
The flyweights are trending in opposite directions heading into the prelim bout.
O'Neill is coming off an injury layoff and subsequent loss while the usually-inconsistent Lipski is now looking for a third straight win and a career revival.
Here are the O'Neill vs. Lipski odds, prediction and betting pick for UFC 296.
Tale of the Tape
| O'Neill | Lipski | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-1 | 16-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:16 | 11:09 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'6" |
| Weight | 125 pounds | 126 pounds |
| Reach | 69" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/7/1997 | 1/26/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 8.8 | 3.9 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 39% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.90 | 4.20 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.96 | 0.54 |
| TD Acc | 42% | 50% |
| TD Def | 71% | 78% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0.3 |
Once one of the most promising prospects in women's MMA, Casey O'Neill is coming off a rough patch that saw her suffer a torn ACL in the summer of 2022, only to return and take her first professional loss against Jennifer Maia.
I wrote in my UFC 296 Luck Ratings this week about my concern for O'Neill, who's had another fight canceled due to an injury since the Maia loss. What that injury was seems to be an open question, but it's still not a great sign.
With that said, she should be better everywhere than Ariane Lipski. Lipski is a muay Thai stylist with a fairly low output who also lacks the power needed to sway judges or end fights on a low volume of shots.
She might be the slightly better technical striker than O'Neill, but that hardly matters if O'Neill doubles her up on attempted strikes.
"King Casey" also has the superior ground game here with a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. She should take care of business fairly easily here – if she's at full strength.
O'Neill vs. Lipski Pick
Contrary to my earlier read this week, I have enough doubts that I'm not taking a moneyline here.
O'Neill looked fine physically in her loss to Maia, and she should have a bit better timing and sharpness in her second fight back from a major injury.
However, betting Under 2.5 rounds or the fight to end inside the distance could work regardless of O'Neill's health.
If she's compromised, Lipski has a shot at ending things early. O'Neill has finished three of her four UFC wins, and she has a shot to do so again at full strength.
The Pick: Casey O'Neill vs. Ariane Lipski Under 2.5 Rounds (+170 at DraftKings)
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