UFC 299 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Ion Cuetlaba vs. Philipe Lins: Size Matters in This Bout (Saturday, March 9)
Louis Grasse/Getty. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight Philipe Lins
Ion Cuetlaba vs. Philipe Lins Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Ion Cuetlaba vs. Philipe Lins odds at UFC 299 – with our expert pick and prediction for Saturday, March 9.
UFC 299's early prelims on ESPN+ conclude with these light heavyweights, who are in a featured slot for a reason.
The always-entertaining Cuetlaba recently snapped out of a skid, but his workload gets no easier as he now fights Lins, a former heavyweight who's on a 3-0 run in the UFC since his move down to 205 pounds.
Tale of the Tape
| Cuetlaba | Lins | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-9-1 | 17-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:10 | 9:42 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 206 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 78" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/14/1993 | 8/17/1985 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.6 | 3.6 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.29 | 3.73 |
| SS Defense | 48% | 44% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.75 | 1.55 |
| TD Acc | 58% | 35% |
| TD Def | 77% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
These 205-pounders were supposed to fight last October, but Lins withdrew on fight day with an illness.
I view Lins as a slight favorite in a pick'em fight and the value side of the moneyline – if you can find plus-money – but I'm more inclined to live bet Lins after Round 1.
Cutelaba is always a handful for at least five minutes; the Moldovan has scored 15 of his 17 wins in six minutes or less. He's the younger man and the better athlete, and he has a significant speed and grappling advantage over a former heavyweight.
However, Lins is the bigger man (three-inch reach advantage), the more efficient striker (+0.3 to -0.2 significant strike differential at range), and offers better cardio.
Cuetlaba vs. Lins Pick
You can consider betting Lins small pre-fight to +105, and I'd take a bigger position live after round 1.
Additionally, depending upon your preference, I show value on Lins to win by decision (projected +466) or knockout (projected +260). I'd set those odds at +118 on a double-chance prop and saw as high as +175.
Lastly, I'll consider betting Lins to win in Round 2 (+600) or Round 3 (+1200).
The Picks: Philipe Lins (+110, 0.25u) at DraftKings | Lins Live after Round 1
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