UFC 299 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Joanne Wood vs. Maryna Moroz: A Bet for the Retirement Fight (Saturday, March 9)
Getty Images. Pictured: UFC women’s flyweight Joanne Wood of Scotland
Joanne Wood vs. Maryna Moroz Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Joanne Wood vs. Maryna Moroz at UFC 299 – our expert pick and prediction for Saturday, March 9.
Nine years after their first meeting, the women's flyweights meet again when they kick off UFC 299 in the curtain-jerker.
Moroz won the duo's first fight via first-round armbar, and she's heavily favored again in the rematch. But now, with Wood announcing that this will be her retirement fight, the longtime UFC fighter is looking to get revenge and go out with a win.
Tale of the Tape
| Wood | Moroz | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-8 | 11-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:45 | 12:16 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 126 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/23/1985 | 9/8/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.93 | 4.15 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 31% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.72 | 4.42 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.57 | 0.67 |
| TD Acc | 54% | 22% |
| TD Def | 59% | 45% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.7 |
Wood will enter the UFC octagon for the 16th and final time on Saturday.
The Scottish martial artist will retire after 25 professional MMA bouts. She hopes to avenge a 2015 upset loss via submission to Maryna Moroz, in which Wood closed as a substantial -550 favorite.
Moroz is six years younger, has a two-inch reach advantage, and retains all the grappling upside in this matchup. Still, the Ukrainian has looked flat in her past two performances, failing to cover her price tag (-150 and +115, respectively) in either contest.
Aside from her loss to Moroz, all of Wood's wins have come against champions, title challengers or top-three contenders (Alexa Grasso, Talia Santos, Lauren Murphy, Jennifer Maia, Katlyn Cerminara, Cynthia Calvillo, Jessica Andrade) in her division.
Wood is the superior kicker and offers substantially more volume at range (+3.1 to -0.3 strike differential per minute). If she can deny the takedowns and avoid grappling exchanges, she should land more damage than Moroz.
Wood vs. Moroz Pick
Although she hasn't technically shown improvements in her defensive grappling in recent bouts – submitting via rear-naked choke to Talia Santos and Alexa Grasso – Moroz is a significant step down in competition relative to Wood's previous opponents.
I don't project value on either side of the moneyline or total for this matchup.
And Moroz by submission (projected +397, listed +334) seems far too obvious.
I project an edge on Wood by decision (projected +280, listed +420 at FanDuel), and I'm inclined to take a small stab on the busier striker at +300 or better.
The Pick: Joanne Wood wins by Decision (+410, 0.1u) at FanDuel
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