UFC 299 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos: Use This Solid Parlay Piece (Saturday, March 9)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty. Pictured: UFC lightweight Mateusz Gamrot
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos odds at UFC 299 – with our expert pick and prediction for Saturday, March 9.
Former UFC lightweight champion dos Anjos is a massive underdog in this ESPN-televised prelim, largely due to his inconsistent results in recent years.
That's a stark contrast from Gamrot, a quickly rising 155-pound contender who's on a 6-1 run with four stoppages as he gets a chance to add an ex-titleholder to his win ledger.
Tale of the Tape
| Gamrot | dos Anjos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-2 | 32-15 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:37 | 14:54 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 156 lbs. | 156 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 70" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 12/11/1990 | 10/26/1984 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.97 | 3.52 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.36 | 2.01 |
| TD Acc | 30% | 35% |
| TD Def | 90% | 56% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.6 |
Like Pedro Munhoz, 39-year-old dos Anjos is ancient relative to his division (average age 33).
Although RDA has continued outperforming expectations this late in his career, the drop-off could come in any fight, especially after floating between welterweight and lightweight.
Moreover, he'll face a frustrating opponent in Gamrot, a much quicker athlete with a high-paced wrestling style (attempting 6.4 takedowns per 5 minutes) that is difficult to separate from or win clear minutes against.
While dos Anjos is an excellent grappler and an extremely well-rounded fighter, he has struggled against similarly persistent wrestlers; I wouldn't say I like the matchup for the Brazilian, stylistically or athletically, at this stage of his career.
Gamrot vs. dos Anjos Pick
I don't show value on the total or any winning method props.
However, I do show an edge on Gamrot's moneyline (projected -499) in a fight heavily juiced to reach a decision. You can consider using Gamrot as a parlay piece up to about -465.
Typically, I want the underdog in a fight likely to reach the scorecards; still, Gamrot's cardio advantage should win him at least two rounds at a very high percentage.
The Pick: Parlay (-125, Risk 0.5u): Mateusz Gamrot (-425) & Benoit Saint Denis (-218)
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