UFC Vegas 81 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jennifer Maia vs. Viviane Araujo: Take the Deserved Favorite (Saturday, October 14)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC women’s flyweight Jennifer Maia of Brazil
Jennifer Maia vs. Viviane Araujo Odds
The UFC Vegas 81 co-main event on Saturday night features a battle between ranked women's flyweights with Jenifer Maia vs Viviane Araujo.
Despite Maia riding a two-fight winning streak, the UFC matchmakers saw fit to have her fight two slots back in the rankings against a fellow Brazilian.
Araujo, on the other hand, is in somewhat of a tough spot herself being that she's lost three of her last four fights and is in desperate need of a win.
However, in Araujo's defense, those losses come against some of the best women in the division, including current champion Alexa Grasso.
Let's break down Maia vs Araujo at UFC Vegas 81.
Tale of the Tape
| Maia | Araujo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-9-1 | 11-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:57 | 15:39 |
| Height | 5-foot-4 | 5-foot-4 |
| Weight | 125 pounds | 126 pounds |
| Reach | 64 inches | 68 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/6/1988 | 11/21/1986 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 4.50 | 4.63 |
| SS Accuracy | 38% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 4.78 | 5.45 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 55% |
| Take Down Average | 0.27 | 1.81 |
| TD Accuracy | 21% | 48% |
| TD Defense | 57% | 82% |
| Submission Average | 0.1 | 0.6 |
Despite both women being credentialed Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts on the mat, Maia and Araujo tend to spend the majority of their fights exchanging on the feet.
Araujo, who appears to have a natural feel for striking, will attempt to style on her opponents from the jump if allowed to.
Almost flaunting a low-handed guard at times, Araujo's athleticism and proprioception allow her to slip and return punches like second nature.
That punching power is nothing to play with 😳@ViviAraujoMMA's bringing the action to Saturday's #UFCVegas81 co-main! pic.twitter.com/ZytyA0Ludp
— UFC (@ufc) October 12, 2023
The potential problem, however, is that Araujo can become less effective defensively (as well as less active offensively) as the fight wears on.
Because of this, Araujo has made noted efforts to control her pacing as of late.
Araujo will still attack from both stances on the feet and go for opportunistic submissions on the floor, but the Cerrado MMA product seems to be in the process of correcting the proverbial steering wheel.
Maia, on the other hand, also has a black belt in muay Thai, which is probably why she's so comfortable on her feet.
Working with a consistent spring in her step, Maia does a decent job of keeping her striking numbers high while still varying her techniques.
In fact, Maia has demonstrated some solid boxing upgrades in her last few bouts while displaying an improved ability to sit down on her punches (particularly her right hand).
The smaller octagon of the UFC Apex can definitely play a role in regards to encouraging grappling, but I'm not sure I see either party having a significant edge over the other – at least while they're fresh.
Araujo is probably the slightly more dangerous submission threat, but Maia appears to be the more consistent positional player who has a better chance of ending up on top given the propensity "Vivi" has to pull guard off of takedown attempts.
Maia vs Araujo Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the former title challenger, listing Maia -155 and Araujo +130 at Caesars as of this writing.
Given that this line hasn't budged much from its initial opener, I'm guessing that the betting public is on the same page as myself in regard to this bout being priced correctly.
Although I'm a big advocate for taking "the value side" of women's MMA fights, I have a hard time seeing a path for Araujo to turn things around outside of an opportunistic finish.
Considering that Maia is a durable competitor who hasn't been finished in more than a decade, it appears that the matchmakers have given Araujo a tough row to hoe.
Add in the fact Araujo has shown a susceptible chin in recent fights (which looked particularly troubling in her last outing opposite Amanda Ribas), and it's hard not to see Maia finding a consistent home for her improved right cross.
I don't blame anyone for taking a stab at an underdog in women's MMA, but I ended up buying in on the Maia moneyline for a slight discount at -145 and may even sprinkle small on her TKO prop that's currently widely available at +1600.
If you're also looking to get involved on the Maia side, then I suggest shopping around for prices of -155 or better (as that's the number I tend to cut myself off at when it comes to playing chalk straight).
But if Maia's price starts to push north of -160, then you may want to consider pairing her up with someone like fellow UFC Vegas 81 favorite Emily Ducote for a plus-money parlay.
The Pick: Jenifer Maia (-155 at Caesars) | Look to parlay if north of -160
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