Sunday's 110th running of the Indianapolis 500 (12:00 p.m. ET, FOX) takes place on the heels of pure dominance by one driver in the series.
That driver, of course, is Alex Palou, a four-time series champion, including three in a row, the defending Indy 500 winner, and the driver who starts on pole.
But, despite the dominance, I think there's plenty to talk about for Sunday's Greatest Spectacle in Racing, and the talking points certainly kick off with a dramatic three-car crash from Monday's practice session that sent 2016 Indy 500 winner Alexander Rossi to the hospital with hand and ankle injuries and collected another race favorite, Pato O'Ward, as well as Romain Grosjean.
Rossi and O'Ward are going to back up cars, while Grosjean's Dale Coyne Racing team elected to repair the primary car.
Like last year, there were technical infractions ahead of the race with the cars of rookie Caio Collet and Jack Harvey failing post-qualifying inspection and being sent to the rear of the field.
But the question remains — can anyone topple Palou?
I think so, and I think this race, while maybe a bit more top-heavy than in years past, is pretty wide open among that top group of cars.
With all the drama, excitement, and pageantry of the biggest race in the world, a full 33-car breakdown is in order. This is meant to be your Indy 500 betting guide to help you form your own betting card.
For my picks, my race day betting card will be out on Sunday morning, and the Indianapolis 500 episode of Running Hot, Action Network's motorsports betting podcast, dropped on Thursday, where I gave out four early-week bets that I like.
So here's your 2026 Indy 500 preview and betting guide, as we go driver-by-driver in the order that they'll start, along with my predicted finishing order at the end.
1. Alex Palou (No. 10)
If you haven't been paying attention, Palou is good.
He's the defending Indianapolis 500 winner, a four-time IndyCar champion, including three titles in a row, and is the polesitter for this year's race. Palou has been extremely fast since cars hit the track for opening practice nearly two weeks ago, and said he's ready to go racing.
There was one little hiccup during Carb Day (final) practice; Palou's car encountered a minor mechanical issue that the team wanted to check out. As a result, the Chip Ganassi No. 10 team pulled the car into the garage, got it all sorted out, and Palou hit the track once again late in the session and looked spry, passing cars nearly at will.
But in a field this strong and this wide open among the elite tier, I can't get behind a +270 or so price tag, and in fact, I'd almost be inclined to possibly even bet on his odds to not win. Of course, I know that's certainly not for everyone, and fading a guy with his resume probably isn't the way to go either.
2. Alexander Rossi (No. 20)
Rossi, on crutches and in a boot for his ankle injury, took to the track in his backup car and in a post-practice interview said the car was just as good as the primary.
If so, that's fantastic news for Rossi, who appeared to have an elite primary car, so much so that I probably would have put him arguably third in my projected finishing order at the end of this piece if not for the crash.
But the actual speed in practice wasn't quite there, ranking just 31st on the practice chart. To me, he didn't quite look as good as his teammate Christian Rasmussen, and I certainly don't think he looked as good as someone like Kyle Kirkwood, who blew his doors off making a pass, then pulling away.
But we also probably do need to take Rossi somewhat at his word that the car is good.
There are just too many things that scare me away from the crash, going to a backup car, and dealing with a hand and ankle injury for me to bite at current market odds, which is sad because he was a driver I was expecting to have plenty of on my betting card prior to the Monday incident.
3. David Malukas (No. 12)
For the second year in a row, my pick to win this race starts third. This year it's the No. 12 Team Penske Chevy of David Malukas.
Malukas has been fantastic in his first season at Penske, currently sitting third in the championship, with five straight top-seven finishes. That includes a third-place finish at the only other oval track race the series has been to this year, Phoenix, where Malukas led the most laps in the race.
Malukas is crafty on the road and street courses, of course, which is partly why he's sitting third in the season-long standings. But oval racing is where Malukas rises to another level.
In his first two years in IndyCar, Malukas achieved second and third-place finishes with the smallest full-time team, Coyne Racing.
And just last year, with A.J. Foyt Racing, which has a technical alliance with Team Penske, Malukas finished this very race in third, crossing the line, but was elevated to second in the finishing order after Marcus Ericsson's finish was disqualified for a technical infraction.
By moving from Foyt to Penske, Malukas gets a step up in equipment, pit crew, and confidence.
He's my pick to win the Indy 500.
4. Felix Rosenqvist (No. 60)
Felix Rosenqvist starts one spot better than he did last year, but it's not all roses for the Swedish driver.
In final practice, there was an issue with the right rear of his car, and then when he came out onto the track again late in the practice session, he mentioned how the car had a lot of oversteer and was loose.
That means the back end of his car wasn't as stable as it needed to be in the turns, which puts him at a higher risk for crashing if that doesn't get adjusted.
Rosenqvist is no stranger to crashing at the 500, famously getting loose and losing it in the 2023 edition of the race while running in fifth place late in the race.
Rosenqvist led zero laps in last year's 500 despite starting fifth and finishing fourth, and while the car clearly has pace as evidenced by his starting position and the Meyer Shank Racing technical alliance with Ganassi Racing, I'm worried we'll see more of the same: A strong starting spot, but a lack of push toward the front, especially after the Carb Day struggles with a loose car.
5. Santino Ferrucci (No. 14)
The brash but bold Santino Ferrucci is always a threat at Indianapolis, and there's no doubt he can win this race, especially with his second-best starting position ever in the Indy 500. Ferrucci is famous for having finished inside the top 10 in every single Indy 500 he's raced, with the list growing to seven after last year's fifth-place finish.
His best career finish in this race is a third-place finish, which came on the heels of his best-ever starting spot when he rolled off fourth in 2023 while racing for his current team, Foyt Racing.
But I do want to temper expectations just a touch.
While he did finish fifth last year, he actually crossed the line in seventh place. And while that's a great result, it's not quite as flattering as a top five and shows there was a bit more to go to the front, especially considering he, like Rosenqvist, did not lead a lap.
That said, Ferrucci loves his race car and has been happy with it all week.
We know he's aggressive and is going to push for the win, but I don't think I'm quite there at 12-1 odds.
6. Pato O'Ward (No. 5)
The driver who was my pick to win last year is currently the second-favorite at many sportsbooks.
O'Ward, like Ferrucci, has been a monster at Indy. In his six starts at the 500 with Arrow McLaren, O'Ward has finishes of sixth, fourth, second, 24th, second, and third.
That 24th-place finish is notable because he crashed while battling Ericsson for second place with eight laps to go. Without that, we're likely talking four straight podium finishes for the fan favorite.
But I'm not quite sold on a podium finish for O'Ward, whose whole Arrow McLaren team has seemed to struggle a bit for pace compared to the Penske cars, Palou, and a few others.
O'Ward has been sawing at the wheel of his car, which always makes things a bit more hairy, and while he has elite car control skills, it's still not ideal for extracting the most pace out of the car when you're fighting it as much as it appears he has been this year.
Add in the fact that he's in a backup car from the Rossi incident, and it's hard for me to trust that second-favorite status. I do want to note that the backup car he is in got victories at Toronto and Iowa last year. However, one is a street course, and the other a short oval, so I'm not totally sold that this is a superspeedway winning car.
O'Ward said at the start of Carb Day practice he wasn't happy with his backup car, but by the end of the session, they got it in a workable window.
But he pointed out there's still work to do and some changes to be made. It's heading in the right direction, and the practice data will certainly help, as well as 500 miles to adjust the car, but it does seem he's working from a bit behind the 8-ball compared to the other big guns.
I am probably too low on O'Ward, knowing how skilled a driver he is, especially on ovals. But I just think there are several better cars out there.
7. Kyffin Simpson (No. 8)
What a qualifying effort from the third-year driver who is arguably the most improved in the series over the past two years.
In his rookie season, Simpson finished 21st in the standings and had a best finish of 12th. One year later, as a sophomore, Simpson pulled together three top-five finishes, including a career-best third-place finish on the streets of Toronto, and a fourth-place finish in the season finale on the oval at Nashville.
There's some real upside here for the Caymanian driver, but I think realistically he belongs toward the mid-pack as there are several drivers with a higher skill ceiling right now and a handful of cars that just look much faster than him as well.
But there's no denying the improvement he's shown and the top-level equipment he's in. A top-10 effort is a realistic possibility for Simpson.
8. Conor Daly (No. 23)
Conor Daly is the hometown hero, as Indiana natives will have a real shot at seeing one of their own win the 110th running of the Indianapolis 500.
In five of the last seven years, Daly has finished inside the top 10 and has led 82 laps in total across 12 starts. Daly has gone from a driver who seemed to struggle to put together top finishes in this race in the first half of his career to a driver who has figured out how to bring it home near the front.
The problem…he's never had a top-five finish in this race.
Something always seems to happen to cause him to fade from the front to the back half of the top 10, and whether that's a Daly issue or random chance, it's hard to say.
But there's no doubt he's been near the top of the time sheets for the whole two weeks, and on his very last run during Carb Day practice, Daly said the car was the best it had felt in traffic all day.
That's a great sign since the next time his car hits the track will be for the green flag of the race.
I don't know if I trust his history enough without a top-five finish ever here in 12 starts to bet him as the third favorite as he is at some books, but I definitely expect to see him running toward the front at various points in the race.
The big question for Daly is whether that comes at the end of the race.
9. Scott McLaughlin (No. 3)
McLaughlin famously crashed on the warm-up laps of last year's race while trying to warm his tires on an unseasonably cold day at Indianapolis. Last year's warm-up wreck he called the worst day of his life, and there's no doubt the New Zealand driver is looking to make amends for last year's mishap.
Scotty Mac has two oval wins in his career, with both coming at short ovals in 2024, but he has finished second twice in his career at Texas Motor Speedway back in 2021 and 2022, which is a high-speed oval like Indy.
However, at Indy itself, McLaughlin has zero top-five finishes but did grab the pole and finish sixth in 2024.
Notably, McLaughlin early in Carb Day practice looked like he had an absolute rocket ship, seemingly passing cars at will and even pulling away from his teammate Josef Newgarden in the train of cars.
There's no doubt he'll have a rocket ship come race day, and I'm looking to back the Scotty Mac revenge tour if the price is right.
10. Scott Dixon (No. 9)
Speaking of New Zealanders named Scott, six-time series champion Scott Dixon is set to make his 24th Indy 500 start on Sunday.
Dixon has three poles, but just one win in the previous 23 times he's entered the race, but he does have five other podium finishes and three more top-five finishes.
Last year Dixon looked set for another strong finish heading into the race, but on the warm-up laps he had a brake fire which ultimately did enough damage that he lost multiple laps while the team made repairs.
Despite being 45 years old, Dixon still has speed, picking up a win at Road America last year to push his winning streak to 21 consecutive seasons.
The veteran driver pulled out one of his old tricks on Carb Day, working on some fuel conservation runs very late in Carb Day practice, which should give the team a great read on potential strategy calls.
To me, Dixon sits on that borderline favorite tier, and I'm certainly looking to buy one of IndyCar's greatest all-time drivers in various markets for Sunday's race.
11. Rinus VeeKay (No. 76)
For the second year in a row, the No. 76 car starts 11th, but this year it's piloted by seventh-year veteran Rinus VeeKay instead of Conor Daly.
Daly led 13 laps in this car one year ago, and VeeKay himself is no stranger to leading laps. In his five years at Ed Carpenter Racing (ECR), Veekay led four Indy 500s for a total of 65 laps, or 6.5% of all the race laps run during his time at ECR.
Last year, he was with Coyne Racing, which just didn't have the speed to compete, but this year VeeKay is back in a Chevy and he said that the No. 76 Juncos Hollinger ride feels much more like his ECR days.
Notably, VeeKay led the 15-lap average in Carb Day practice. And while that's not quite the same as leading a lap average in NASCAR due to the nature of the draft and various agendas by each driver and team in Indy 500 practice, it's certainly not a bad sign to be near the top of the speed charts in final practice.
VeeKay ended his Carb Day early, very happy with the car. I'm going to be investing in VeeKay for sure. I'm just waiting for more books to post more markets, which they will as the race nears.
12. Takuma Sato (No. 75)
Takuma Sato is a two-time winner of the Greatest Spectacle in Racing with victories in 2017 and 2020. He has also nearly won multiple other times, most famously crashing in Turn 1 of the last lap while going for the lead in an epic battle with Dario Franchitti, who prevailed as the 2012 winner.
Sato also has a third-place finish in this race in 2019 with his current team, Rahal Letterman Lanigan (RLL) Racing, which is also the outfit he won his second 500 race with.
Last year, he started second and absolutely dominated the early portion of the race, leading 51 laps until he slid through his pit box during the pit stops after a lap 82 caution came out. Sato slipped outside the top 10 after that and could only push his way back to eleventh, which was elevated to ninth after the disqualifications of Ericsson and Kirkwood.
Sato has been near the top of the time charts in race conditions, so I wouldn't be shocked to see him push forward. He's got just as much upside as anyone in the field, but he's also mistake-prone and struggled to come through traffic last year.
He's a boom-or-bust option.
13. Ed Carpenter (No. 33)
Ed Carpenter, owner of — you guessed it — Ed Carpenter Racing, starts one spot better than he did last year.
Notably, Carpenter pretty much ran in the mid-pack all race, leading one lap through a pit cycle sequence, but didn't make much noise otherwise.
Formerly, Carpenter was a three-time polesitter of this race and has a best career finish of second. But that was all the way back in 2018, and he hasn't crossed the line better than 17th in his last four starts in this race.
Maybe some of that ECR magic shines through, since we know the cars of Rossi and Rasmussen are fast. But it's more likely Ed ends up in the middle of the field once again.
14. Helio Castroneves (No. 06)
Four-time Indy 500 winner Helio Castroneves will roll off 14th, but it's been a hit-or-miss week for the 51-year-old driver.
At times, he's been extremely unhappy with his car, and at other times, he's looked like one of the fastest cars in the field, either with a tow or on the no-tow chart.
His Meyer Shank Racing team, of which he is a minority partner of the ownership group, shares a technical alliance with Ganassi Racing, which no doubt elevated his performance closer to the top 10 than it was the previous two years, when he finished 15th and 20th.
We can never doubt that one of the four drivers to ever have four Indy 500 victories has a wealth of knowledge and experience, and he certainly still has his Helio aggression with some of the blocks I've seen from him in practice.
But I don't think he'll be a race winner in this race again. A top-10 finish is possible with the pace the car has shown at times, but expecting a top-five or better is getting close to wishful thinking territory.
15. Christian Rasmussen (No. 21)
Like the two New Zealand Scotts, we have two Danish drivers named Christian in this year's Indy 500.
Rasmussen is teammates with Rossi and Carpenter, and while he starts the farthest back of the trio, he might just have the most upside as well. Certainly, between him and Rossi, there are two legitimate threats to win this race, but after Rossi's mishaps, I'm pretty close to giving the nod to Rasmussen as the more likely driver to win.
Rasmussen won his first career race last year at the one-mile oval at Milwaukee, and was the car to beat at the most recent oval at Phoenix until contact while trying to pass Will Power ruined his day.
At Indy, Rasmussen charged from 24th into the top eight before ultimately finishing 12th in his rookie year. Then last year he backed that up with an eighth-place finish across the line, which was elevated to sixth after the DQs.
With continued improvement and a fast-looking race car that finished Carb Day second on the time sheet, Rasmussen's upside is victory lane.
16. Marcus Armstrong (No. 66)
Indy hasn't quite clicked for Marcus Armstrong, who is a very talented driver but hasn't quite put everything together for a race win in the midst of his fourth season in IndyCar.
Armstrong did score a podium finish at the second Iowa race last year, which was his first podium on an oval, and he finished fifth at Phoenix earlier this year for another top-five oval finish. So there is hope that things start to click here at the superspeedway, but of course, Indy is a much different beast than the two aforementioned short ovals.
Armstrong is part of that Meyer Shank Racing team that has the Ganassi alliance, so there should be plenty of speed in the car.
The question comes down to whether Armstrong can extract that speed.
My best guess is his ceiling is likely around an eighth-place finish, but I'm expecting something in the teens to 20 range.
17. Marcus Ericsson (No. 28)
Starting next to Marcus (Armstrong) is Marcus (Ericsson). Only this Marcus is an Indy 500 winner, a two-time podium finisher, and crossed the line as the runner-up last year before being hit with the disqualification.
That means in three of the last four years, Ericsson has crossed the finish line no worse than second, so we should absolutely expect him to be a threat to win.
From what I gathered during Carb Day practice, Ericsson and Kirkwood were happy with their cars from the Andretti Global stable, so it sounds like all things are go for Ericsson to look to repeat his efforts from previous seasons.
But it is important to note that last year he got there through a strategy gamble that paid off, then was able to hold his position on a day that was tough to pass with such cool temperatures.
I don't expect quite as much from the Swedish driver, but there's no doubt if things work out the right way with pace and strategy, we might just see Ericsson in victory lane again. I'm just not banking on it.
18. Christian Lundgaard (No. 7)
Christian Lundgaard picked up his second career win in the series' most recent race on the road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway (IMS), giving him some much-needed momentum heading into the 500.
Unfortunately for Lundgaard, the IMS road course is nothing like the 2.5-mile superspeedway oval. On the fortunate side, the Danish driver has improved, finishing 13th two years ago and crossing the line ninth before being elevated to seventh after the DQs in his first year for Arrow McLaren last year.
Ideally for Lundgaard, the upward trajectory would continue, and there is plenty of focus on him from his Arrow McLaren team as a championship contender. So I do think he may punch into the top 10 again, but realistically I think a finish in the teens is more likely.
19. Will Power (No. 26)
It sounds like things were a struggle for Power on Carb Day.
Power's teammates Kirkwood and Ericsson called their days early, happy with their cars. But Power ended up turning more than 80 laps as he switched setups multiple times looking for balance in the car.
Even NASCAR driver Carson Hocevar, who was in attendance as a pseudo-teammate under the TWG Motorsports umbrella, noted in a TV interview that it seemed like Kirkwood and Ericsson were solid, but there was still work to do on Power's side of things.
It might be a bold call for me to put a series champion, Indy 500 winner, and driver on one of the top teams outside my top 20 projected finishing order, but that's where I am heading into race day after a struggle in final practice for Power while going up against a very strong field.
20. Nolan Siegel (No. 6)
Siegel is in a prove-it year at Arrow McLaren and so far, the proving hasn't been there.
Siegel has a best finish of 10th, while his two teammates have combined for seven top-five finishes this year, and now he starts lowest of the full-time trio at the season's most important race.
He has shown confidence in his car this weekend, but the ultimate pace hasn't quite been there, as it hasn't for the whole Arrow McLaren team.
But Siegel did end up 16th last year, crashing on the last lap to bring out a caution and was ultimately elevated to 13th through the DQs.
I think much more than a top-15 finish would be a great day for the third-year driver.
21. Louis Foster (No. 45)
Louis Foster finished as the 15th and final car on the lead lap, battling his own Rahal Letterman Lanigan (RLL) teammate Devlin DeFrancesco while the duo ran just ahead of Palou, Ericsson, and the rest of the leaders while trying to avoid being lapped.
Like last year, the RLL cars seem a bit down on speed aside from Sato, who always seems to extract more out of his car here than his teammates.
Foster did just pick up the first top-10 finish of his career on the IMS road course, but last year's 12th-place result in the 500 is his best career oval finish, and that came with three finishing positions of help from DQs.
I'm expecting a midpack finish at best for Foster.
22. Ryan Hunter-Reay (No. 31)
I want to give a big nod to Prize Picks for sponsoring the No. 31 car driven by Ryan Hunter-Reay. My Turn-4 pick on the Indy 500 episode of Running Hot, our motorsports betting podcast, was a Prize Picks three-pack combo, so make sure to check that out.
The combo notably did not include RHR, who is a series champion and Indy 500 winner with what was then Andretti Autosport in 2014.
Unfortunately, that car has just seemed to lack speed, especially at race pace.
That's a bummer, because Hunter-Reay was one of the pleasant surprises last year, piloting the No. 23 Dreyer & Reinbold Racing (DRR) entry to the lead for 48 laps on an alternate strategy that would have played out perfectly. It was the same strategy that Ericsson used to gain the lead before losing it to Palou on the main strategy, but Hunter-Reay was running ahead of Ericsson on that strategy.
Unfortunately for RHR, his team pushed the fuel strategy one lap too far and he ran out of fuel entering the pit lane. The car then wouldn't refire, and he ultimately finished a disappointing 21st after looking like the live favorite for the win in the latter half of the race.
Can he repeat the feat this year?
It's possible, but it probably takes another strategy play with a car that seems to have even less pace than his car last year.
23. Josef Newgarden (No. 2)
For the second year in a row, the two-time Indy 500 winner finds himself starting in the bottom third of the field, and for the third time in four years, in the back half of the field.
Fortunately for Newgarden, he won the race where he started 17th. And in last year's race, where he started 32nd after being disqualified from qualifying for a technical infraction, Newgarden quickly pushed his way into the top ten, then all the way up to seventh shortly after halfway.
Ultimately, his race would end with a fuel pump failure, but he certainly looked like he had a race-winning car on speed after charging forward 25 places.
On Monday practice, it appeared Newgarden had a car capable of the same thing, arguably looking like the car to beat and expressed confidence in his race car. He also looked strong in Carb Day practice as well, although when interviewed, he said the car was "okay," but it's quite possible he was downplaying things to not show his hand.
Personally, I thought Malukas looked better in Carb Day, and early in practice, McLaughlin looked better than Newgarden, but I'm splitting hairs here.
The other concern is the weather. Will there be enough time for Newgarden to make his way through 22 other cars to get the lead if this race gets rain-shortened?
That definitely needs to be a factor to consider, so I'd probably hold off on Newgarden outrights until closer to the race start so we know where things lie with the forecast. I'd hate to have a bet on him, then realize a huge line of showers might end the race at something like 60% distance.
But if the weather holds off, then as long as Newgarden doesn't encounter any in-race issues, he'll almost surely be a threat to finish in the top five. And if you're there, you're a threat to win.
24. Romain Grosjean (No. 18)
I wouldn't be surprised if Grosjean's race ends on Lap 1, as the ultra-aggressive Frenchman starts on the outside of Row 8 in dirty air. But if he makes it through clean, he's an interesting prospect to maybe surprise a bit.
Grosjean has shown solid race pace throughout the two weeks of practice, and while it doesn't look like top-10 pace, it could be near top-10 pace, and with some variance, he picks up a top-10 finish.
But even after the start, I worry about his consistency. He's failed to finish two of his three Indy 500 starts and four of his five speedway starts, including Texas back in 2022-2023.
If you want to take a flier on him in some matchups or groups, he could be interesting depending on the price and opposing drivers.
25. Kyle Kirkwood (No. 27)
Another year for Kirkwood, another disappointing qualifying effort, another year of expecting to drive through the field to a solid finish.
In four years with Andretti Global, Kirkwood has yet to start better than 11th, but in the three previous editions, he showed he had a car capable of not only a top-five finish, but potentially a win.
In 2023, Kirkwood looked like the car to beat in the long run, charging through the field after the halfway point, but a slow pit cycle compared to his competitors pushed him back to seventh when suddenly Rosenqvist lost control of his car in front of Kirkwood, leaving the Floridian nowhere to go. Kirkwood's car ended up flipping and his day went from a hopeful victory to disaster through no fault of his own.
In 2024, Kirkwood started 11th, went to nearly the back of the field after some early pit woes, and once again charged through the field to lead some laps on an alternate strategy and finish seventh.
Then last year Kirkwood started 23rd and crossed the line sixth before his disqualification.
I'd expect more of the same this year. In an interview with FS1 after he hopped out of his car to end his Carb Day practice well before the session ended, Kirkwood said that his team should bubble wrap the car and put a bow on it; it was that good.
The big question, like Newgarden, is whether there is time for Kirkwood to get to the front, because he looks like he has a car capable of fighting for the win.
26. Katherine Legge (No. 11)
The first woman to attempt "The Double," Legge is trying to compete in both the Indy 500 and NASCAR's Coca-Cola 600 on the same day. If weather becomes an issue, it's been made very clear that the Indy 500 is her priority, and she'll see the race out to its fullest.
Legge is in the best equipment she's ever been in for what's going to be her fifth career Indy 500 start.
She's driving the No. 11 Foyt Racing entry in a partnership with HMD Motorsports. That Foyt car means she has Ferrucci, who has finished third here in a Foyt car as her teammate. And David Malukas finished third in the Foyt entry last year before being moved up to a second-place finish after Ericsson's DQ.
So the equipment is there, but the issue is that Legge just doesn't get to run enough in these cars to really push her way forward.
She's in the bottom tier for me, and a good run for her would be to push up into that next tier of cars and drivers on speed. If she does that, and there's some attrition, a top-20 finish is possible.
27. Mick Schumacher (No. 47)
Son of seven-time F1 World Champion Michael Schumacher, Mick is set to make his Indy 500 debut with RLL Racing.
Unfortunately, as I mentioned above, the team has struggled for pace outside of Sato, and for a rookie, that's exceptionally punishing.
Schumacher has also had a bit of a struggle overall this season, ranking 25th out of 25 full-time entries in the IndyCar Series this year in the standings with a best race finish of 17th.
I'm not expecting much this weekend, and he's solidly in the bottom tier.
28. Graham Rahal (No. 15)
Veteran Graham Rahal, son of team owner and Indy 500 winner Bobby Rahal, will have the same starting spot as last year, where he struggled and crossed the line 20th and finished 17th after the finishing adjustments.
A top-10 finish would be asking a lot for a car lacking speed, but notably, Rahal was inside the top five on the 15-lap average chart when FS1 briefly flashed it in the latter portion of their Carb Day coverage.
Rahal picked up a ninth-place finish at the only oval race so far this year at Phoenix, so there's a glimmer of hope for a veteran who used to contend yearly at this track for top five and top 10 finishes. However, his last year as a top-five threat in this race was in 2021.
Don't expect a rebound to his or RLL's heyday, but he could threaten a top-10 finish if the speed is there, attrition takes place, and the strategy works out.
29. Dennis Hauger (No. 19)
If you are a part of the Action Network Discord, you might recall I had high hopes for rookie Dennis Hauger in the preseason and took a flier on him at 200-1 odds to win this race.
Well, that seems quite unlikely now, but my hopes weren't completely unfounded.
Hauger's engineer was supposed to be Michael Cannon, who made Foyt Racing the contender it was at Indy and was the impetus for Team Penske to ally with Foyt so that they could get the setup data that Foyt had through Cannon.
Hauger is also an Andretti Global product, essentially on loan to Coyne Racing, so there is a technical alliance with the bigger Andretti team as well.
Alas, the same qualifying issues that struck Andretti struck the Coyne cars, but both Grosjean and Hauger showed speed in Carb Day, ranking 10th and 11th on the charts. That gives me hope there's some oomph in those cars' race pace.
Hauger already has two top-10 finishes in his rookie season despite driving for a small outfit and is the reigning Indy NXT champion, which is like the AAA baseball version of IndyCar. That's a super strong pedigree showing his talents as a driver.
The big goal for Hauger should be to get the Indianapolis 500 rookie of the year, which is likely to come down to him and Foyt driver Caio Collet.
30. Jacob Abel (No. 51)
Abel was the lone driver to miss out on last year's Indy 500 after failing to qualify while driving for Coyne Racing. This year, he's running for his family-owned team, Abel Motorsports and didn't have to worry about making the field with only 33 drivers entered.
This is Abel's first race of the year, having not raced in IndyCar since the 2025 season finale. That year, Abel was dead last in the standings among all the full-time entrants, so the consensus is that he's just happy to be on the show.
However, that car has shown speed at times with the Chevy power, so I wouldn't be totally surprised if he picked up a couple of spots on merit, but by and large, he's expected to be a backmarker in this race.
31. Sting Ray Robb (No. 77)
Robb was the slowest of the qualifiers but starts 31st thanks to the technical infractions of the two drivers starting behind him.
Robb hasn't popped on the speed charts like Abel has at times, so I consider Robb to be the last-place car in this event on speed overall.
32. Caio Collet (No. 4)
The rookie Collet has had an impressive month of May at Indy, topping the practice charts in one of the early sessions and qualifying inside the top 12 before the technical infraction was found and he was moved to the rear.
With Foyt Racing Chevy looking so strong, as it does for his teammate Ferrucci, I wouldn't be surprised to see Collet move up toward a mid-pack finish.
He'll be battling Hauger for rookie of the year honors, and I think it'll be a great battle, but I give the nod to Collet, who has shown more overall speed this week.
33. Jack Harvey (No. 24)
When cars first rolled off nearly two weeks ago, I would have put Harvey much higher on my list, as he looked fantastic on the no-tow speeds and also looked feisty in race trim. But as other teams and cars have gotten dialed in, it seems to have pushed Harvey down on the list.
Harvey had a transmission issue on his qualifying run, and then, to add insult to injury, his car failed tech after qualifying, which moves him to the rear of the field.
In Carb Day practice, Harvey said the car felt good and was fast, but the concerning line for me was that he'd be able to pass people "if they made a mistake."
To me, that sounds like he needs others to make mistakes to move forward rather than him moving forward by creating the pass himself.
Certainly, I think he'll have speed beyond the backmarker tier, but it sounds like things could get a bit tough for Harvey as he approaches better and better cars.
Giffen's Predicted Finishing Order
Here's my ranking of drivers based on a combination of projected speed, projected incident rate, and race craft. As an example, a driver like Sato arguably has top-five speed but drops a bit thanks to a higher projected incident rate.
In another case, Rahal may not have one of the best cars, but his experience and race craft here at Indy push him up.
Drivers in a given tier, I'd have no argument with you about placing them anywhere in the tier, and even pushing halfway into a tier above or dropping halfway into a tier below.
After all, it's the Greatest Spectacle in Racing, the Indianapolis 500, where truly anything can happen!
Tier 1 – The Favorites
(1) David Malukas
(2) Alex Palou
(3) Scott McLaughlin
(4) Conor Daly
(5) Josef Newgarden**
(6) Santino Ferrucci
(7) Alexander Rossi
(8) Pato O'Ward
(9) Kyle Kirkwood**
Tier 2 – Near Elite
(10) Felix Rosenqvist
(11) Scott Dixon
(12) Christian Rasmussen
(13) Marcus Ericsson
(14) Rinus VeeKay
(15) Takuma Sato
Tier 3 – Hit or Miss
(16) Christian Lundgaard
(17) Helio Castroneves
(18) Marcus Armstrong
(19) Kyffin Simpson
(20) Ed Carpenter
(21) Will Power
(22) Graham Rahal
Tier 4 – Could Punch Forward
(23) Caio Collet
(24) Nolan Siegel
(25) Jack Harvey
(26) Dennis Hauger
(27) Louis Foster
(28) Romain Grosjean
(29) Ryan Hunter-Reay
Tier 5 – The Bottom Tier
(30) Jacob Abel
(31) Katherine Legge
(32) Mick Schumacher
(33) Sting Ray Robb
**If there appears to be no threat of a rain-shortened race, I'd move Newgarden and Kirkwood up to 3rd and 6th in my finishing order, respectively.
