The Canadian Formula 1 Grand Prix is set to run on Sunday at 4 p.m. ET. It will be the fifth race of the season and the last of the first North American swing before the series goes into Europe.
With the two Mercedes GP cars locked in a battle for the drivers' title, the F1 circus arrives at one of the season's most prominent power-tracks, the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal.
Find my Formula 1 betting preview and Canadian Formula 1 Grand Prix prediction below.
Canadian Formula 1 Grand Prix Preview
One kind of feels for George Russell. Forever the prince of British motoring behind Lewis Hamilton, he spent a solid season sharpening his game at a dreadful Williams Racing, finally earned a Mercedes GP drive, waited Hamilton out of the Silver Arrows, he got a top car and… he's getting thoroughly outdone by a teenage kid.
Three weeks ago, at the Miami GP, Italy's Kimi Antonelli took a brilliant victory. Managing to withstand immense pressure from the McLaren pair of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, he led from pole position to become the youngest driver to win three races in a row.
He's comfortably in the lead of the championship, and does not look like he's slowing down so far.
The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is a semi-permanent street circuit, famous for its stop-and-go flow. It features long, high-speed straights punctuated by tight, low-speed chicanes, concluding with the infamous Wall of Champions at Turn 14.
Montreal features some of the heaviest braking zones on the calendar. Cars lacking rear-end stability under heavy braking will bleed lap time. Drivers will also have to maximize corner speed and aggressively launch their cars over the chicanes' curbs.
However, they can't rely too much on aerodynamic grip, as straight-line speed is also key. The long back straight heading into the final chicane offers prime overtaking opportunities for aerodynamically efficient cars.
It's a track that lends itself to a car with good mechanical grip over the curbs and straight-line speed, so it's no surprise Mercedes has remained dominant. The Silver Arrows locked the front row in qualifying and have been the class of the field all weekend once again.
However, there could be surprises.
On Saturday's Sprint Race, Russell and Antonelli took off from the front row and immediately went wheel-to-wheel. The 19-year-old Italian launched a big move down the first set of turns, and the pair banged wheels, forcing Antonelli onto the grass not once, but twice.
It showed it's not all peace and love in the Mercedes garage, as an enraged Antonelli took to the team radio to repeatedly demand that the stewards penalize Russell.
Expect more fireworks if these two remain the only two candidates for the title.
Formula 1 Predictions: Canadian GP
George Russell – To Win Outright (+110, Bet365)
Antonelli has had his number for a couple of races now, but it's hard to go against a pole sitter on plus money; I'm backing Russell to take the win.
The T-Pose man has barely put a foot wrong all weekend, and while some could regard his defense on the Italian youngster on Saturday as dirty, it's only a sign that he won't be pushed around. If they survive the first corner, and if Antonelli doesn't take him out in a desperate bid, Russell should have this in the bag.
Dating back to 2014 — and accounting for the 2020 and 2021 cancellations — the pole-sitter-to-win conversion rate at Montreal sits at 70%. Hard to go wrong with that.
Charles Leclerc Top 6 (-100, Bet365)
Charles Leclerc had a torrid time in qualifying, getting outdone by teammate Hamilton, and the Red Bull duo of Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar, but there are arguments to say he'll have a better time come Sunday.
Over the Sprint, Leclerc showed superior tire management and rhythm compared to the trio, finishing in fifth.
Moreover, Verstappen has been very vocal about his Red Bull struggling with the bumpy track surface and harsh chicane curbs, and the issue should also affect Hadjar. Add one of those Ferrari lightning-quick launches, and it's easy to see the Monegasque compensating for the difference.
Both Cars Podium Finish – McLaren (+163, Bet365)
This is kind of a long shot, but hear me out. Yes, I'm backing Russell to win the race, but that's not saying I don't think Antonelli will be nowhere near.
If Saturday showed us something, it's that the Italian kiddo isn't afraid of seniority, and that Russell won't back off a "Silver War" like the one Hamilton had with Nico Rosberg. Sparks are going to fly at some time, and Norris and Piastri will be there to collect.
The Papaya cars might not be the class of the field like they were a year ago, but they've mightily closed the gap to the Mercedes. They are comfortably second best, and if anything spoils Antonelli's race, they are the ones to get the scraps.
