The 2026 Formula 1 season starts on March 8 with the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne, but prediction markets are already booming.
The paddock is officially moving on from the "18:1 compression ratio" expansion loophole controversy, in which rivals claimed Mercedes and Red Bull engines were illegal. Now, the Bahrain tests have shown that in this era of shorter chassis, active aerodynamics, and a 50/50 power split between combustion and electric engines, packaging and energy management will be key.
Mercedes held the early lead, but now Ferrari — long considered an outsider after their 2025 slump — has emerged as a force to be reckoned with.
Here is an early look at the favorites for the 2026 F1 World Constructors' Championship, according to the latest trading data on Kalshi, which blends traditional financial markets with advanced prediction systems. Kalshi is available in most states, and we wrote a full explainer on how it works here. If you're interested in trading, be sure to claim our Kalshi promo code before you get started.
Formula 1 World Constructors' Championship
Mercedes Odds
The FIA's announcement that it had developed a new, 130°C test for engine compression, along with an e-vote before the Australian GP to decide whether that should be the benchmark from August 1 onward, has given some clarity on where Mercedes (and its customers) stands.
The Mercedes power unit will remain, at least until the F1 summer break, the dominant force in the sport, and that makes them the favorites to win the title, particularly when considering nobody knows how much failing this new test will impact their performance, or if they even will.
Add an in-form George Russell and a wiser Kimi Antonelli, one year removed from his controversial debut at 18, and team principal Toto Wolff has reason to smile.
Ferrari Odds
In January 2026, it looked like the red cars were in for another disappointing season, but the Bahrain tests have shown that's far from the case. For all their complaints about the Mercedes' engine compression ratio, Ferrari showed impressive pace and a rocket launch start during preseason testing.
Will it be enough? It's always hard to say with Ferrari. As the Tifosi know all too well, the Scuderia has a knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. But with solid results in preseason, Lewis Hamilton's glowing review of the car, and Charles Leclerc lapping nearly a second quicker than everyone else at Bahrain, it makes sense they're climbing in the books.
If anything, this might be the best moment to buy low on the Scuderia. If, come the Australian GP, we find out Mercedes only has 13 races to make the most of their loophole engine, the guys in red will look a lot more enticing.
McLaren Odds
McLaren showed disappointing pace during both tests at Bahrain, with both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri failing to impress. The Papaya team will remain among the front runners, but it's a long drop from their untouchable pace at the start of 2025.
Still, they do have two very capable drivers, and the Constructors' have often gone to the team with the most complete package, regardless of individual pace — think 1999 Ferrari or 1994 Williams.
If the Mercedes engine remains the class of the field, and if Norris and Piastri can regularly fight for wins and podiums, and if they run a tighter ship than last year, the chance is there. Of course, trying to focus on two cars again could cost them the Drivers' title, but owner Zak Brown has never looked very worried about that.
Red Bull Odds
The last of the four front-running teams, Red Bull, might be too much on the other side of the scale when it comes to driver favoritism. Red Bull is Max Verstappen, and Max Verstappen is Red Bull — the second car is only there to block rivals and help with Verstappen's setup.
That's a winning recipe for a driver's world title, but as Red Bull discovered in 2021 and 2024, it will only get you the Constructors' if the car is so dominant you basically win every race. So far, the RB22 looks far from the level of the RB19 and RB18 — or Sebastian Vettel's RB7 and RB9.
Isack Hadjar is as competent a candidate for the second driver job as you can find, but he's still a driver in his second year. All too many have shown how difficult the jump from Alpha Tauri/VCARB promise to Red Bull Racing second fiddle can be.
It's long odds for a reason, but Verstappen can't be underestimated.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Also, Kalshi’s refer-a-friend program is a "win-win" for prediction market traders. By inviting a friend to the platform, both you and your friend receive a $25 credit once they meet the initial trading requirements.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
