It's a new year and a new Formula 1 season. The 2026 championship is about to greenlight, as 22 of the world's best drivers bid for the biggest prize in motorsport.
The new season has brought a myriad of changes, with new cars, new engines and even a completely new team in Cadillac F1.
The preseason tests at Bahrain have made it clear that the teams will have a lot of work on their hands. The new cars, centered on a 50/50 power split between combustion and electric power, have proven to require a very different driving and setup style. As such, Australia will give us the first look into who's done it better.
Find my Formula 1 betting preview and Australia Formula 1 Grand Prix prediction below.
Australia Formula 1 Grand Prix Preview
A new set of regulations, a new grid order. Much like they did in 2014, when the first generation of hybrid cars hit the F1 tracks, Mercedes F1 has been the one to truly master the new rules.
There were many hints of it at the Bahrain tests, but the top time of those runnings going to Ferrari's Charles Leclerc gave people hopes it wouldn't be the Silver Arrows running away with the titles as they did a decade ago. Australia has proven that challenging them will be difficult.
Mercedes' George Russell and Kimi Antonelli locked down the first row on Saturday's qualifying like it was no big deal, with their nearest rival — Red Bull Racing's Isack Hadjar — nearly a second away from them.
It's not even just the engine, which was rumored to be the class of the field even before preseason. The Silver Arrows have the best overall package, as their car looks capable of optimizing key energy-recovery points to minimize power loss when the battery juice runs out, and the electric engine shuts down. The team also seems the one to have best understood how to set up the cars and brief the drivers on reducing the downsides.
It has meant that while Mercedes customer teams like McLaren, Williams and Alpine have some semblance of an upper hand, it won't be the deciding factor it was feared to be.
As for who can challenge them, the chair remains very much in the air.
Four-time champion Max Verstappen seems far too engaged in criticizing FIA and F1 to mount a challenge, even if the Red Bull car has been the one closest in performance to Mercedes.
Ferrari had shown promise in Bahrain, but moods have since dampened a lot, with the red cars still clearly some ways from Mercedes's package.
McLaren has perhaps the best shot. Team boss Andrea Stella was confident that lessons from Australia in what Mercedes is doing would help them close the gap, and they're the only other one of the four teams with the best engine at the back, but they would need to close that gap fast.
Abu Dhabi Formula 1 Grand Prix Prediction, Pick
Charles Leclerc – Top 3 Finish (-120, Bet365)
With the winner's pick being pretty much set and seemingly unavoidable, we have to find picks lower down the ranks. Given that Red Bull and Ferrari are more or less on the same pace, I'm backing Leclerc to make good on some of the promise he's shown in Bahrain.
Isack Hadjar is a fantastic driver, and the Red Bull is a solid car, but he's only in his second year, and as Verstappen's crash in qualifying has shown, the car is not infallible. The French driver isn't used to fighting at the front, and Leclerc should make easy pickings of him.
Lando Norris – Top 6 Finish (-163, Bet365)
It's generally rare for drivers to have such odds to end up basically where they start the race, but it seems the books have little faith in the defending champ holding his ground.
It's not a position that comes out of the blue. Norris has been the worst McLaren driver all weekend and has recently admitted to struggling with the switch to the new cars. But with basically only Lewis Hamilton chasing him and standing to gain from any shenanigans from the top five, I'm comfortable with Norris defending his meager qualifying gains on Sunday.
Lance Stroll – First to Retire (+175, Bet365)
This is a market we generally don't explore, but with those odds, it's a good time to take a look.
Aston Martin F1 is a dumpster fire at this moment. The Honda engine is again the worst in the field, the aerodynamic package is lacking, and Stroll is only in the race because the FIA gave him special dispensation after he failed to meet the 107% rule.
This rule, set up in the 1990s to prevent slow back markers from becoming movable obstacles on the track for cars, means you can only race on Sunday if your qualifying time on Saturday falls within 107% of the pole time.
Add to it rumours of the Aston Martin's vibrations being so bad that drivers worry about potential nerve damage to their hands, and it's all set up for Stroll to… stroll gently into the pits before anyone else.
