The roar of the engines grows louder as the start of the 2026 Formula 1 season approaches. With the most radical technical overhaul in a decade — a shorter chassis, active aerodynamics, and a 50/50 power split between combustion and electric engines — the "old guard" dominance is officially under threat.
The season will get the green light on March 8 with the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne, but prediction markets are already booming, with fans and experts alike looking to capitalize on the chaos of a reshuffled grid. While established forces like four-time winner Max Verstappen and defending champion Lando Norris remain in the hunt, the smart money is looking at a return to form for Mercedes.
Here is a look at the early favorites for the 2026 F1 World Drivers' Championship, according to Kalshi's latest trading data. Kalshi is available in most states, and we wrote a full explainer on how it works here. If you're interested in trading, be sure to claim our Kalshi promo code before you get started.
Formula 1 World Drivers' Championship
Max Verstappen Odds
Few drivers have been as critical of the new regulations as Max Verstappen. The four-time champion wasn't shy about his dislike for the new 50/50 split power, claiming the new F1 cars are "Formula E cars on steroids" and assuring the FIA should "get rid of that and focus on a nice engine."
However, just because he doesn't like the cars doesn't mean he can't drive them. The Dutchman was very much on pace in the two Bahrain test sessions with his Red Bull Racing car, and the Red Bull Ford engine is one of two that will feature the 18:1 compression under-race-temperature trick (along with Mercedes), so speed shouldn't be a problem.
Moreover, Verstappen just spent the 2025 season proving he doesn't need his car to be the class of the field to contend. If the RB22 is anywhere near the top runners, he'll have a shot.
George Russell Odds
Ever since it became clear the Mercedes power unit was going to be the best in the field, and with tests in Bahrain showing the aero package is not far behind, George Russell has skyrocketed as the title favorite at most books.
It'll certainly be the first time the Englishman has a complete package under him, with Mercedes largely struggling with the modern ground-effect era regulations that ran from 2022 to last season. The Brackley team was far and away the engine that racked up the most kilometers between the official and client teams, so reliability should also be there, despite the controversial 18:1 compression trick the engineers pulled off.
Russell has shown that he has the speed and cunning to become a world champion, although how he will react if he finds himself leading the table with a few races to go — never an easy feat for a first-time contender — remains to be seen.
Charles Leclerc Odds, Lewis Hamilton Odds
Hamilton’s move to Ferrari was initially dubbed a "nightmare" by some outlets after a shaky 2025, but his 2026 outlook is brightening. After spending 10 months in the simulator developing the SF-26, the seven-time world champ said his "DNA is within the car," giving fans hope that he can regain his previous form.
For his part, Leclerc set the fastest lap of the tests to finish eight tenths of a second ahead of everyone else on the field. He looked comfortable in the new regulation cars, which many of his key rivals seem to dislike. If the 2026 cars struggle to overtake each other, that one-lap pace could prove crucial.
Add the skyrocketing launch that Ferrari-engined cars showcased in Bahrain, and it's a formula for a title bid. Who will get the nod if both red cars are within a chance? Let's just say only one of them is nicknamed "Il Predestinato".
Lando Norris Odds
The rule change came at the worst possible time for Lando Norris. McLaren had absolutely nailed the 2025 rules, but his title defense will come on the backfoot.
While Red Bull, Ferrari, and Mercedes seem to have taken a step forward, McLaren looks like it took a step back from the dominant 2025 car.
Add a very hungry teammate in Australia's Oscar Piastri, who — many could argue — was "robbed" of a maiden title last season, and it's looking bad for Norris. The weight of that first title was lifted off his shoulders, but it remains to be seen if that helps or demotivates Norris, a driver who has always looked to break the usual "winners" mould.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Also, Kalshi’s refer-a-friend program is a "win-win" for prediction market traders. By inviting a friend to the platform, both you and your friend receive a $25 credit once they meet the initial trading requirements.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
