The Monaco Formula 1 Grand Prix is set to run on Sunday at 9 a.m. ET. It will be the sixth race and the first of the European swing at the heart of the season.
After the power-driven showdown in Montreal a couple of weeks ago, the F1 circus now arrives at the twisty streets of Monaco, where wins start to become reality on Saturday and strategy calls become the main event.
Find my Formula 1 betting preview and Monaco Formula 1 Grand Prix prediction below.
Monaco Formula 1 Grand Prix Preview
Is this Kimi Antonelli's title to lose? Mercedes GP teammate George Russell certainly thinks so if his statements on Friday were honest and not some intense mind games played on the 19-year-old. And it's looking more and more true by each passing race.
Two weeks ago, Russell was denied a second victory this season after his engine blew up on Lap 39. However, the DNF hid something important from the race aftermath. Far from riding into the sunset as many a Canada GP pole-sitter has done, he was well and truly in a fight for position with Antonelli, and didn't look to be winning it.
It gave the Italian wonderkid his fourth win in a row — joining an exclusive club alongside the likes of Ayrton Senna, Michael Schumacher and Max Verstappen — which makes him the only driver in history to also do it in his first four wins ever.
So, how does going from the flat-out straights of Montreal to the twisty sectors of Monaco change the equation?
The Circuit de Monaco might be a legendary track, and F1's biggest legacy event, but there's not a single spot on the tight 3.337 km street strip where overtaking isn't virtually impossible.
Mechanical grip and front-end turn-in are everything, and drivers have to be incredibly precise in their movements. The fastest lap possible is half an inch away from the wall, separating glory and disaster by minuscule margins.
For safety reasons, F1 has banned Active Aero (Straight Line Mode) specifically for the Monaco GP. This means teams do not have their moving-wing configurations available, making the few overtaking spots even harder to exploit.
The layout rewards cars with low-speed chassis balance and high mechanical grip. Ferrari entered the weekend as heavy analytical favorites — Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton dominated Friday practice as the SF-26 looked entirely in its element around the tight bends.
However, Leclerc was perhaps overly ambitious on Saturday, finishing his last lap against the wall, while Hamilton ran fast but was outdone by Antonelli and Red Bull's Max Verstappen.
The 19-year-old Italian will once again be setting off from pole, while the four-time champ could look for an all-or-nothing dive into turn one, or hope that an opportunistic safety car gives him the win.
Formula 1 Predictions: Monaco GP
Kimi Antonelli – To Win Outright (-220, FanDuel)
Going with the pole sitter to win didn't cash out, but going with anyone else to take the top step of the podium at Monaco is a poor strategy. Four out of the last five polemen took the win, and with Antonelli sitting at the spot, it feels like an even more secure bet.
At a race famous for the difficulty in overtaking, the man ahead of the pack has everything in his favor. While Antonelli has shown he can lose his temper at times, it tends to happen when he is chasing rather than leading.
As such, unless an uncharacteristic Mercedes strategy blunder or an untimely safety car robs him of his fifth win, it'll be hard to take it away from him.
Oscar Piastri Top 6 (+125, FanDuel)
It's not been the greatest weekend for Piastri, with McLaren's 1000th GP celebrations muddied by struggles with the car. However, they've slowly climbed out of the hole, and while the Papayas won't match the Mercedes or Ferrari for pace, they don't need to.
Starting P7, the Australian has all to benefit from to finish in the top 6, from one of the 2026 season's usual poor launches to a safety car or an aggressive pit stop strategy.
With so little to lose and so much to gain at plus money, it's an interesting prospect.
Max Verstappen – Fastest Lap (+330, FanDuel)
I don't really like anyone for a Top-3 or Top-10 finish, so once again, we're going off the usual script for this one.
The thing with winning at Monaco from pole is that while you have everything in your favor, you also can't get careless. Antonelli will do well to disappear into the distance, but if he pushes too much, he'll pay the price, so he'll likely have Mercedes boss Toto Wolff in his ear throughout the race, making sure he doesn't.
Max Verstappen, on the other hand, can be a little more reckless, and having finished just .043 seconds behind Antonelli in qualifying, there's no reason not to think he has the pace to do it.
