The third of three races on Motorsports Christmas is also the longest one, with drivers set to contest 400 laps in the Coca-Cola 600 (6:00 p.m. ET, Prime Video).
Charlotte marks the third-straight 1.5-mile oval that the Cup Series has run in a points-paying race, so there's plenty of relevant data to use in addition to the practice session that took place on Saturday.
Add it all up, and there's a fun betting card to put together for tonight's 600 miler.
Coca-Cola 600 Picks, Predictions
Kyle Larson to Win (+450)
Looking to do the Indy 500, Coca-Cola 600 double, Larson will head to Charlotte as the race favorite, and also as my model's favorite.
After his dominant performance at Kansas, where he won both stages and the race, Larson somehow moves even higher in my driving metrics at 1.5-mile ovals, boosting him up on that front.
Then, in practice, Larson ranked inside the top five in my FLAGS metric in the second practice group, which is typically comprised of the faster set of cars. Add in a second-place qualifying effort, and Larson looks to be in great shape to put in another dominating performance.
My model gives him an 18.8% chance to win, so he is barely playable at ESPN BET where he's +450
The Bet: Kyle Larson to win (+450 at ESPN BET) | Bet to: +450
William Byron to Win (+700)
Similar to Larson, his Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) teammate William Byron is in a good situation entering the 400 lap affair.
Byron will start one row behind Larson after qualifying third, and ranked two spots behind him in practice FLAGS. If Larson isn't the dominant car, my model thinks Byron has the next best chance, and gives him a 15.0% chance to win the race. That's up from the 12.5% implied odds at +700, which can also be found at ESPN BET.
If you don't have ESPN BET, BetMGM is currently hanging a +600 number which my model still has as value, albeit a bit thin.
The Bet: William Byron to Win (+700 at ESPN BET) | Bet to: +600
Alex Bowman Top Finishes
Are you sensing a theme here?
My model is high on a third HMS driver, and that's the driver of the No. 48 car, Alex Bowman.
Bowman slots right between Larson and Byron in my practice FLAGS metric, and fires off ninth to start the race.
The 1.5-mile tracks have been good for Bowman, at least on the speed front. Bowman had a top-five car on speed at Las Vegas before finishing seventh. He gave up a late lead to Larson at Homestead and finished second.
At Texas, Bowman rallied from 21st after the first pit stops to third by the end of Stage 2, before another slow stop dropped him just outside the top 10. Starting stage three, he got caught up in a crash that started in front of him, with nowhere to go, but he definitely had a top-three car on speed.
Finally, in the most recent race at a 1.5-mile track at Kansas, Bowman claimed a fifth-place finish.
That means in all four races at 1.5-mile tracks, Bowman had a car worthy of a top-five finish.
The fact that he's +290 for a top-five at FanDuel is a bit mind-boggling. My model gives him a 31.1% chance to finish top five, which equates to about +220 as fair odds. I'll gladly bet on Bowman at that price.
In fact, I'll take a full Bowman ladder, taking his top 10 at -120, his top three at +600, and even his outright at +2100, which I have at a 6.0% chance of happening.
The Bets: Alex Bowman Finishing Position Ladder (Top 10, Top 5, Top 3, and Win at FanDuel)
