NASCAR Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions for Sonoma: Back This Driver’s Top-5 Chances (Sunday, June 11)

Sonoma plays host to the second road course event of the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season.

The 12-turn, 1.99-mile track is quite different from the first road course drivers visited earlier this year at Circuit of the Americas (COTA). Thankfully there was a 20-minute practice session for Sonoma that let drivers get in plenty of laps, affording us enough data to work with.

Looking at that practice data, and taking into account track history as well as overall road course performance, I've found one driver to back for a solid finish today at the Toyota/Save Mart 350 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX).

Let's take a look.

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NASCAR Odds, Picks for Sonoma

When looking at practice times, defending race winner Daniel Suarez really stands out.

Despite coming in only 20th on the single-lap ranking, Suarez was incredibly consistent, displaying little tire falloff over the laps he did run. That's important because this race should have long green flag runs, especially without stage cautions stopping the action at planned intervals.

Suarez's lap times all fell within the 79-second bracket giving him what looks to be a consistent long-run car.

Add in the fact that he's the defending race winner and had very good speed at COTA prior to the mayhem that took place late in the race, and I think it's quite possible he moves up from his ninth-place starting spot.

Bet365 has Suarez's top-five finish listed at +300, which translates to 25.0% implied odds. (DraftKings also has the bet available at +275, or 26.7%.)

My model has Suarez at 28.4% to come home inside the top five.  I'll gladly back him here with all of the data pointing to a strong finish.

The Bet: Daniel Suarez Top-5 Finish (+300 at bet365) | Bet to: +275