The Miami Heat (3-1) and San Antonio Spurs (4-0) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. The game will broadcast live on FDSSUN.
The Spurs are 6-point favorites over the Heat on the spread (Spurs -6), with the over/under set at 229.5 total points. The Spurs are -220 favorites to win outright on the moneyline, while the Heat are +185 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Heat vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, October 30.
My Heat vs Spurs Prediction
- Heat vs Spurs picks: Over 228.5 Points (-110), Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 15.5 Points (-115)
My Heat vs Spurs best bets are on the over and Jaime Jaquez over 15.5 points , with the best price tags currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Heat vs Spurs Odds
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 229.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 229.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
Heat vs Spurs NBA Preview
The Heat and Spurs are two of the hottest teams in the league heading into Thursday's clash.
At 4-0, San Antonio is one of four remaining undefeated teams, while Miami has also impressed with its 3-1 start.
Perhaps the biggest surprise with Miami has been its offense, which ranks seventh in efficiency, averaging 120.1 points per 100 possessions.
Last season, Miami ranked just 21st (112.4) in the same category.
While the obvious question is what has changed to make Miami's offense much more potent, I think you'll find the answer isn't quite straightforward.
For one, Miami has given Davion Mitchell the keys to running the offense with Tyler Herro still sidelined due to an ankle injury.
Mitchell is averaging a career-high 8.3 assists after posting 5.3 with the Heat following his midseason trade.
Moreover, the Heat offense looks completely different, as they've now injected a ton of pace, ranking atop the league with 109.13 possessions per game.
If we look at last season's numbers (97.08), Miami is essentially averaging 12 more possessions per contest.
This Heat team also looks much deeper, considering as many as nine players are averaging at least 15 minutes.
Miami also got younger on its roster, bringing the average player age down from 26.6 to 25.8.
A more youthful squad is certainly suitable to complement this high-octane offense we're currently seeing.
If we turn to the Spurs, their evolution can almost be tied to one player—Victor Wembanyama.
The Frenchman has increased his scoring from 24.3 to 31.0 points while improving his field goal percentage from 47.6% to 60.3%.
Although he still looks relatively slender, Wembanyama has transformed his body since entering the league, bulking up from 210 to 245 lbs.
Now, he's able to operate much closer to the basket, leading to greater efficiency and fewer 3-point attempts.
Wembanyama is averaging six fewer 3-point attempts (2.8) compared to what he did last season (8.8).
Thanks to Wemby, the Spurs have the third-highest field-goal percentage (52.4%), resulting in a 120.4 Offensive Rating, despite ranking 27th in pace at 97.58 possessions per game.
Heat vs Spurs Prediction, Betting Analysis
This is a fascinating matchup because it features Miami's pace against San Antonio's efficiency. Given the two playing styles, I can only foresee a game that should produce a ton of points.
Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has shown a willingness to go deep into his bench to take advantage of the youthful energy that benefits Miami's uptempo style.
Mitchell is the glue that keeps Miami's offense ticking, and I trust his ability to create quality shots for his teammates, no matter who is on the floor.
Norman Powell could be a big miss for Miami, as he remains doubtful on the injury report with a strained groin.
However, Miami still managed to rack up 144 points against the Hornets on Tuesday, even with Powell sitting out.
One player who could step up in Powell's absence is Jaime Jaquez Jr.
The UCLA product is averaging 12.6 field goal attempts in his last three games after just seven on opening night.
It wouldn't surprise me if Spoelstra had a word with Jaquez to be more aggressive, considering he's shooting 68.9% from the floor.
The third-year player is averaging 18.8 points per game and has a scoring prop of 15.5 with minimal juice at -105.
Given my projection for a higher scoring game, I expect Jaquez to have enough possessions and touches to exceed his prop line.
Picks: Over 228.5 Points / Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 15.5 Points
Spurs vs Heat Betting Trends
