The 2026 NBA All-Star Game's revolutionary USA vs. World format is generating significant trading interest, with Kalshi users pricing Team World's chances at varying probabilities across multiple markets.
The prediction markets reflect the uncertainty around the new tournament structure, which marks the first time the NBA All-Star Game will pit American players against international talent in a round-robin format featuring three teams playing four, 12-minute games. When it comes to the market, the highest-volume outcome shows 39,525 contracts traded with $0.38-$0.39 bid/ask spreads, while other scenarios trade at $0.29 (29% probability) with over 10,000 contracts in open interest.
If you're curious and want to make your own NBA All-Star Tournament predictions, be sure to use our Kalshi promo code to get started.
NBA All-Star Tournament Odds
The NBA announced rosters earlier this week for the February 15 All-Star Game, which represents the league's latest attempt to inject competitiveness into an exhibition that has drawn criticism for lackluster defense and effort. Previous format changes, including captain-style drafts and target scores, failed to consistently produce the intensity fans desired.
This USA vs. World concept capitalizes on basketball's global growth, and the tournament structure adds complexity that traditional All-Star betting hasn't seen.
The varied market pricing suggests traders are still calibrating their expectations for how the format will play out, and the distribution from 29% to 39% probability across different thresholds indicates uncertainty about both the format and the roseters themselves.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
