It's time for the NBA’s most lucrative time of the year, All-Star Weekend, when the prices are high and the effort is low. But still, there are fun, overly complicated events with a myriad of outcomes to wager on, and we’re going to help you figure out how.
Join me as we take a whirlwind tour of the All-Star Weekend events and the bests to make on them.
NBA All-Star Saturday will kick things off with the State Farm 3-Point Contest at 5:00 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock. Let's get into my NBA 3-Point Contest predictions and picks for All-Star Weekend 2026.
NBA 3-Point Contest Odds for All-Star Saturday
- Kon Knueppel +240
- Damian Lillard +400
- Jamal Murray +650
- Devin Booker +650
- Tyrese Maxey +700
- Donovan Mitchell +750
- Norman Powell +1000
- Bobby Portis +1200
Odds via DraftKings
NBA 3-Point Contest Preview
This has become the main event.
I have done a lot of work on this through the years, and the big factors I’ve found are two-fold: hand-off percentage and “Starry range.”
The “Starry” shots were formerly sponsored by Starry. Now they are just the logo shots. They are from 30 feet and worth three points.
These long-range shots have been a major swing in the last several competitions, including last year when in the final round, Tyler Herro won by one point after hitting the long-range bomb and the other two finalists missed.
The hand-off numbers are pretty simple.
We think of these as “catch-and-shoot” shots but they are not.
There’s a rack next to you. The ball is not going into your shooting pocket, front-facing. The ball is to the side, you turn, grab, turn, rise, fire.
That’s more like a hand-off shot than any other.
Under those conditions, here’s who I like…
NBA 3-Point Contest Prediction, Picks
3-Star Prediction: Donovan Mitchell (+750)
Each of the last five winners have been lottery picks.
Donovan Mitchell went 13th. So did former winners Tyler Herro and Devin Booker.
Mitchell is the same size (6-3) as several other winners.
He leads the NBA in 3-pointers made this season. He’s made the 8th-most shots from logo-range in the past three seasons, and he’s shooting 41 percent on hand-off shots per Synergy Sports.
2-Star Prediction: Tyrese Maxey (+700)
I think Tyrese Maxey could steal this weekend. He’s electrifying and willing to take games and contests by the reins.
The big sneaky thing here is that Maxey leads in shots from logo-range by double digits this season, and ranks third across the last three seasons in those shots behind Steph Curry and Jordan Poole (shooting 37 percent).
Maxey is shooting 40 percent on hand-off shots.
He profiles as the kind of guy who uses the 3-point contest to put himself on the map.
1-Star Prediction: Jamal Murray (+650)
Jamal Murray doesn’t have the kind of trigger that allows him that many logo shots, but he practices them routinely in his warmups.
He’s excellent on hand-offs, and this is his contest.
Murray is shooting 49 percent from 3-point range on hand-off shots this season.
NBA 3-Point Contest Betting Predictions
- Donovan Mitchell (+750)
- Tyrese Maxey (+700)
- Jamal Murray (+650)
NBA 3-Point Contest Start Time, How to Watch, Location
- Date: Saturday, February 14
- Start Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Intuit Dome, Inglewood, California
- TV/Streaming: NBC
