NBA Best Bets | Expert Picks Against Spread, Props, NBA Odds for Saturday, March 16

It's NBA on ABC Saturday time, as we have a full nine-game slate across the Association today on March 16.

That means our NBA betting experts have seven NBA best bets, featuring picks against the spread and props with the latest NBA odds today. The big game on the schedule is the NBA on ABC matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers, and we have both a spread pick and a player prop best bet for that one.

NBA games on Saturday, March 16 tip off at 5 p.m. ET. Here are our bets.

NBA Best Bets | Expert Picks Against Spread, Props for Saturday

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

This isn't a spot advantage for either team. This is mostly a numbers play and buying into the trend of the Rockets being dominant at home. Even without their breakout big man, Alperen Sengun, the Rockets should not be this big of underdogs to the Cavs, who are also down a few players themselves.

Evan Mobley (ankle) and Max Strus (knee) will miss Saturday's contest, and that's enough missing for Houston to have significant value as the home dog. The Wizards are terrible, but we saw this Rockets team dispose of them without any trouble last game and I think their positive play continues tonight.

This should be a gritty, grind-it-out game, and with a low-scoring game, that gives plenty of runway for the Rockets to keep it close. I like them at any dog price and I'll even sprinkle enough to win a half-unit on the moneyline.

Pick: Rockets +4.5

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

The Pelicans have been the second-best first half team across the board this season. They're second at home (19-10-2 ATS), second on the road (21-13) and second overall (40-23-2), while the Blazers have been second worst in the first half (27-37-2). They've done better on the road (15-15-1) which is where they'll be tonight, but they're playing their third game in four nights and fourth game in six nights. I think they come out sluggish in the first half.

In particular, the Pelicans dominate bad teams in the first half. They're 33-24 ATS under head coach Willie Green versus teams with a 40 percent winning percentage or lower, including 12-5 this season.

The full game spread of -13.5 is too rich for my blood with a team on a back-to-back that tends to lose focus over the course of a full 48-minute game, but I have confidence the Pels will come out strong to start and make this closer to a double-digit halftime lead.

Pick: Pelicans First Half Spread

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

Full disclosure, this isn't the best spot for the Hornets coming off a back-to-back against the Suns yesterday. They're playing their third game in four nights and fourth game in six, but even if I dock them -5 points on the spread for the bad rest spot, I still have this -8 at worst. Not to mention, the Hornets have performed well against the spread on back-to-backs this season, going 8-4 ATS according to Bet Labs.

On the other side, it isn't a great spot for the Sixers either who could be without Tobias Harris (ankle) and are coming home after a three-game road trip. That's typically a bad spot for teams who tend to ease off the gas after extended time away from home.
The Hornets haven't won a game vs. the Sixers since Nov. 23, 2022, but they've covered the last two meetings, including a game on Jan. 20 when Embiid was still at full strength.

I don't see a lot of room for error assuming full strength, but with Tobias Harris questionable with an ankle injury, there's enough value to take double digit points with Charlotte.

Pick: Hornets +10.5

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By Bryan Fonseca

While Micic is still around 11.5, I'm going to play his overs. The man can hoop. We saw it in Europe, and we are seeing it in the NBA.

He's over 11.5 points in seven of his last eight, with the only miss being 11 exactly. Since landing in Charlotte prior to last month's trade deadline, he's gotten nine overs in 16 contests, and even with Tre Mann back, he's starting.

This one is just not a play I'm hesitating on as long as he remains in this rhythm and is getting the attempts. If he continues at this rate, he'll be at 12.5 before too long.

Pick: Vasilije Micic over 11.5 Points

By Bryan Fonseca

I like DeRozan having another big scoring night in the Michael Jordan Bowl.

DeMar may be without Coby White again, and if he is, I really like this bet. He's in a great rhythm, averaging 27.3 points over his last nine with five overs, shooting 48/35/90 in that span. And this of course, began before White's injury.

DeRozan's on a tear, White may be out, the Wizards are the league's worst defense — all the ingredients for another potential hooper-ass night from the California native and six-time NBA All-Star.

Pick: DeMar DeRozan over 26.5 Points

By Michael Arinze

Although the Lakers are seeded higher than the Warriors, Los Angeles is the only team above .500 in the NBA that has a negative point differential (-0.5).

Moreover, the Warriors are a net two points better than the Lakers in this category. While there's no disputing the Lakers' talent, the numbers show they've been a bit fortunate this season. And when you look at their record against the spread (ATS) as a favorite, our Action Labs database shows the Lakers are just 15-23 (39.5%) in this spot. As a short favorite of 3.5 or fewer points the Lakers are even worse at 4-11 (26.7%) ATS.

Based on those numbers, I'm not sure how you can have any confidence backing the Lakers as favorites, and I can only look to take the points with the Warriors as road underdogs.

Pick: Warriors +2.5

By Joe Dellera

The Lakers take on the Warriors in a critically important game in the Western Conference Play-In Race.

Lebron has destroyed the Warriors on the glass and has exceeded this line in 11 of 12 games against GSW since 2021. He’s coming off that monster 20-rebound performance in the last contest he played in and should find success again.

He’s on the injury report with an ankle issue per usual, but we will see if he misses this spot.

Both of these teams play with pace so there should be plenty of possessions. Additionally, with the Warriors being slightly undersized and potentially without Draymond Green (back – questionable), their offense could suffer a bit leading to more missed shots and rebound opportunities.

I’m grabbing the 7.5 and would ladder this up to 10+ (+250 DK).

Pick: LeBron James over 7.5 Rebounds