NBA Best Bets Today: 4 Picks From the Experts (Tuesday, March 26)

NBA Best Bets Today | Tuesday, March 26

By Joe Dellera

The Lakers take on the Bucks and it appears that they will be without LeBron James who is listed as doubtful for this matchup.

One player to target is Austin Reaves.

Reaves can score at every level and sees his Usage spike without LeBron. He averages 19.1 ppg and has exceeded his 17.5 points line in 6/9 games without LeBron this season.

When these two teams played a few weeks ago (also without LeBron), Reaves scored 18 points and that was with D'Lo dropping an absurd 44 points with 9 3s. That is a bit of an outlier performance for D'Lo and more usage should be available in this contest.

This is an advantageous matchup for Reaves in a pace up spot for both teams. I like him to exceed 17.5 points

Pick: Austin Reaves over 17.5 Points

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

A best bet in the truest sense of the phrase is when you're generally high on a team and generally low on a team and then those two teams play each other in a bad rest spot. In this case, that's the Mavericks and Kings. I'm generally higher on the Mavs and they catch the Sacramento at home, where they're just 13-20 ATS in a bad rest spot with Sac on a back-to-back, playing their third game in four nights, fourth game in six nights and fifth game in seven nights.

The Mavs are also on a back-to-back and they have the disadvantage of traveling from Utah to Sacramento, but if we look at how the Mavs have performed in back-to-backs, they're an impressive 8-3 ATS including 5-0 on the road. Dallas has also been rolling teams lately going 8-1 SU/ATS in their last nine games and they've improved the defense, ranking fourth in Defensive Rating in that stretch (107.8). I don't think the Mavs will be 'dogs for long, but I like them down to -125 on the moneyline.

Pick: Mavericks +1.5

By Bryan Fonseca

This entire month, Valanciunas has gone over this twice, and his 13 last time out was against a Jalen Duren-less Detroit Pistons — and they're the Pistons.

This is nothing against Valanciunas, as someone who won a title on his fantasy team despite his lack of production over the last few weeks, I don't despise this man at all. The Pelicans have been rolling a little bit here and head coach Willie Green likes the small ball lineups featuring Larry Nance Jr. at center because it's easier to space offensively with that level of versatility, and it's easier to defend for those same reasons as well.

From a macro, the writing appears to be on the wall regarding Valanciunas' time in New Orleans, and even though I could see him bully his way to over 10.5 against skinny ass (but tough ass) Chet Holmgren, he's played less than 20 minutes in eight of his last 10, and one of the two he didn't was 20 exact. The other was just under 22 against the Heat.

Green may do the thing again where Nance starts the second half, which would help, but either way, JV just isn't getting the time, and thus, isn't scoring like he could be.

Pick: Jonas Valanciunas under 10.5 pts (-115)

By Joe Dellera

Domantas Sabonis made the record books with his 54th consecutive double double last night but it is time to look at him for his assists today.

The Kings are playing the second game of a back to back and he has thrived in this spot.

On 0 days rest this season, Sabonis is averaging 7.9 assists but this number spikes at home to 9 per game with 9+ in 5/6 games and a triple double in 4 of them.

This game against Dallas is a Pace Up spot with Dallas playing at the 8th fastest Pace and Kings playing 12th.

It’s also a great matchup for Sabonis who has historically torched Daniel Gafford and he has a significant size advantage over Dereck Lively.

I’ll play the 8.5 and grab some triple double (+250 FD) as well.

Pick: Domantas Sabonis over 8.5 assists