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Clutch Player of the Year is one of my favorite awards to analyze because, ultimately, it just comes down to sorting the leaderboard. Who scored the most points in clutch time? That's your winner.
We went through this mathematically to build our portfolio, extracting win percentages from my power ratings to find the teams most likely to play high-variance, coin-flip games this season.
Let's get into our NBA Clutch Player of the Year predictions and picks for this season.
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NBA Clutch Player of the Year Predictions, Picks
Jalen Brunson, Knicks (+700)
By Matt Moore
When I looked at the schedule to see which teams have the most games projected to be within a 40% to 60% win probability, the Knicks immediately popped. They play in a hyper-competitive division that is going to generate a ton of tight, late-game situations.
I am fading the Knicks from a team-success standpoint this season. I think they are due for regression, the vibes feel off, and I don't think the team is quite as good as they looked during the final four months of last season.
But if I am wrong and they keep winning, it is going to be because Jalen Brunson just keeps sliding them out of danger with single-digit wins.
There is simply nobody better at patiently navigating to his spot. Opposing teams don't know how to keep him from getting there, they can't build a wall to stop him, and they can't help off because of the weapons around him.
If they do, he's a good enough passer to make them pay. Give me Brunson at +700.
Pick: Jalen Brunson (+700)
Keyonte George, Jazz (+7500)
By Jim Turvey
This is an award you can attack during the season by checking the leaderboards, but I want to take a shot on two long shots right now, starting with Keyonte George at 75-1.
I think the Jazz are going to be in a lot of close games this season. If their pace slows down just a little bit, which we saw hints of in the preseason, it will drag them into even more tight finishes.
George fits the mold of a clutch guard who gets the ball in his hands during those late, tight moments. He was eighth in field goal attempts per game in the clutch last season.
Will Hardy is an excellent coach when it comes to drawing up late-game plays, and George is the exact type of talented guard to execute them.
Pick: Keyonte George (+7500)
Tyrese Maxey, 76ers (+3500)
By Matt Moore
The other team that topped my projections for the highest percentage of games landing in that 40% to 60% win probability window was the 76ers.
I think it is entirely likely that the Sixers—operating with a clunky system as they try to integrate all these different pieces—will find themselves making wild comebacks at the end of games purely based on talent.
They might defend poorly for three quarters, suffer through inconsistent shooting, and look like garbage offensively. But then Tyrese Maxey drops 15 points in the final five minutes and they magically win the game.
Maxey was very good in the clutch last season, shooting 46% from the field in those tight windows. At 35-1, he has the elite burst and shot-making to rack up raw clutch points on a team destined to play a lot of close games.
Pick: Tyrese Maxey (+3500)
Lauri Markkanen, Jazz (+10000)
By Jim Turvey
I am going right back to the Jazz and playing Lauri Markkanen at 100-1 alongside Keyonte George. We just saw last year with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray that you can easily have two teammates rank highly in clutch field goal attempts.
Markkanen has a proven history of clutch shot-making, both in Utah and during his time in Chicago. He was just a few spots below George in clutch attempts per game last year.
If you take a shot on both of these Jazz players at 75-1 and 100-1, and one of them eventually solidifies himself as the singular go-to guy, you have an incredible ticket on a team that I am quite high on overall.
Pick: Lauri Markkanen (+10000)
Jaylen Brown, 76ers (+8000)
By Matt Moore
To round out my Sixers clutch portfolio, I am grabbing Jaylen Brown at 80-1. Yes, they have a lot of mouths to feed, but Joel Embiid is never going to play a massive number of games.
I can easily see a scenario where the Sixers slot Brown into closing lineups. Maxey brings the ball up, they use Embiid as a decoy in certain actions, the floor clears out, and Brown just goes to work.
Brown shot 45% from the field in clutch time last year. Even if he and Maxey end up splitting some of the workload, you usually see one guy eventually emerge as the true closer.
Covering both at these numbers is a smart way to attack Philadelphia's late-game variance.
Pick: Jaylen Brown, 76ers (+8000)
