The NBA Playoffs are officially underway with three more games on Monday, as the visiting teams each face a 1-0 deficit. Tonight's action kicks off in the East, with the Cavaliers hosting the Raptors before the Knicks welcome in the Hawks.
We'll then head West to Denver, as the Nuggets will take on the Timberwolves.
Our approach for this preview won't necessarily be to break down these individual matchups. Instead, we'll seek to highlight players that offer the best value in the DraftKings Game Leaders market.
NBA Game Leader Picks, Predictions: Monday, April 20
- Raptors vs Cavaliers 3-Point Leader – James Harden (+322)
- Hawks vs Knicks Rebounds Leader – Josh Hart (+940)
- Timberwolves vs Nuggets 3-Point Leader – Jamal Murray (+284)
Raptors vs Cavaliers 3-Point Leader Prediction
The Cavaliers looked dominant in their series opener, defeating the Raptors 126-113 and covering the spread as an 8.5-point favorite. As a result, bookmakers adjusted the spread for Game 2 to 9.5, but the market has bet that number down to 8.5.
However, if you're getting an early look at the Game Leaders market, DraftKings has yet to offer any odds for Toronto's players. Perhaps this is a bit of foreshadowing, since it's not like the Raptors are dealing with an injury crisis at the moment.
With Cleveland's Donovan Mitchell a favorite again to finish with the most points at -104 odds, I'd prefer to look at other markets in hopes of getting a better return.
While Mitchell is also a favorite for the most 3-pointers, his odds are more enticing at +222. Mitchell's teammate, James Harden, has even better odds at +322, and he might be the better shooter of the two.
Harden's 3.1 3-pointers per game is only slightly behind Mitchell, who averages 3.2. It's worth noting that Harden has been the better shooter, as evidenced by his 3-point percentage (37.5%), which improves to 43.5% since his trade to Cleveland.
In comparison, Mitchell shot 36.4% from distance on the year.
Although both players finished with four 3-pointers in Game 1, Toronto's backup point guard, Jamal Shead, led all players with five 3-point field goals. Shead's performance was more of an anomaly, as he's a career 32.2% 3-point shooter who will likely return to the bench should Immanuel Quickley return from his hamstring injury.
Given the current odds, Harden's price should be much closer to Mitchell's, making this a value play at +322.
Pick: Most 3-Pointers Made: James Harden (+322)
Hawks vs Knicks Rebounds Leader Prediction
The market for the rebound leader offers the most intrigue after seeing Josh Hart lead all players with 15 boards in Game 1. Although Hart averaged 7.5 rebounds during the regular season, we've seen him come alive before in the playoffs.
During the 2023-24 postseason, Hart was a rebounding machine, averaging 11.5 boards.
Hart has a nice role with the Knicks because he can embrace his role as one of those glue players. He doesn't have to be a primary scorer, but still has the trust of the coaching staff due to his high energy on the court.
New York ranks seventh in rebounding compared to the Hawks, which sit 18th. In Game 1, New York outrebounded Atlanta 45-40.
Hart has the fourth-shortest odds for most rebounds at +940. His price is even longer than Mitchell Robinson's (+870), who averaged 8.8 rebounds but played just 15 minutes off the bench.
Although Robinson is always a threat to grab the most boards, it wouldn't surprise me if we continue to see him play fewer minutes in the playoffs, when teams often go with shorter rotations.
As a result, with Hart's true odds probably closer to +700, there's some clear hidden value in his current price at +940.
Pick: Most Rebounds: Josh Hart (+940)
Timberwolves vs Nuggets 3-Point Leader Prediction
The 3-point market in the Wolves–Nuggets series is probably the only place you can find any value because Nikola Jokic dominates all the other categories, such as points, rebounds and assists.
In Game 1, it was Minnesota's Donte DiVincenzo who led all players with four 3-pointers. All 12 of DiVincenzo's points came from beyond the arc, and he has the third-shortest odds on the board at +553.
In fairness, since he averages the third-most 3-point attempts per game (3.0), perhaps his numbers align with his odds.
However, DiVincenzo isn't the best perimeter shooter in the series. That honor belongs to Denver's Jamal Murray. Murray shot an impressive 43.5% from the perimeter this season but had a stinker in Game 1 with an 0-for-8 performance.
The Nuggets' point guard still managed to finish with a game-high 30 points by attacking the basket and shooting 16-of-16 from the free-throw line.
Murray is too good a player to shoot that poorly from long range. After all, he's a 39% career 3-point shooter.
Game 2 offers a great opportunity to regain his touch, and I'll back him as the favorite at +284 odds.
Pick: Most 3-Pointers Made: Jamal Murray (+284)
