One game. One chance to write your own history and forge your path into the NBA Finals. That's what's on the line as the Thunder host the Spurs in a winner-take-all Game 7.
From the start, this series always felt like it would go the distance, and here we are. Our approach for this preview won't necessarily be to break down these individual matchups. Instead, we'll seek to highlight players that offer the best value in the DraftKings Game Leaders market.
Let's dive into my NBA game leader props for Spurs vs. Thunder Game 7 on Saturday, May 30.
NBA Game Leader Props for Spurs vs Thunder Game 7
- 3-Point Leader: Devin Vassell (+338) / Alex Caruso (+620)
- Most Rebounds: Isaiah Hartenstein (+510)
Thunder vs Spurs 3-Point Leader: Devin Vassell / Alex Caruso
There's been a ton of correlation throughout this series when assessing game leaders.
For example, only San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama and OKC's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have finished as top scorers, and they did so in games that their teams won.
Thus, if you know which team is going to win the game, you pretty much already know who is going to be the top scorer.
The Spurs' 27-point victory in Game 6 almost guarantees that they'll have the full attention of the Thunder.
San Antonio has also struggled to put together quality performances in consecutive games in the series. And while OKC is a deserving favorite, you won't find much value in backing Gilgeous-Alexander as top scorer, given his odds of -157.
A better option would be to target the 3-point market, where even the favorite, Devin Vassell (+338), offers better than 3-to-1 odds.
Vassell has been San Antonio's best 3-point option in the series, shooting 42.6% from the perimeter. Even in the games the Spurs lost, he still shot 11-for-27 (40.7%).
He's also coming off a 4-for-7 performance in Game 6.
Although Vassell has an implied value of 18.4%, my model projects he'll finish first in 19.8% of simulations.
The player with the highest percentage of first-place simulations is OKC's Alex Caruso.
Caruso is 10-for-17 (58.9%) from deep in the three games the Thunder won. He also knocked down eight 3-pointers in a losing effort in Game 1.
Based on his performance in the series, Caruso wins in 23.4% of my simulations, suggesting his odds should be closer to +327.
Instead, we're getting almost twice the price from DraftKings, which is pricing him at +620.
With a fairly conservative option and one that's a bit of a long shot, we've got the right balance in our portfolio to attack this 3-point market.
Pick: 3-Point Leader: Devin Vassell (+338) / Alex Caruso (+620)
Thunder vs Spurs Most Rebounds: Isaiah Hartenstein
This series has been all about adjustments, and I expect Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault will have a plan to slow Wembanyama down.
One of the big changes Daigneault made early in the series was to use a more physical player, like Isaiah Hartenstein, to guard the Frenchman.
Hartenstein can use his 250-pound frame to lean on Wembanyama and wear him down, or force him to start farther from the basket.
At times, we've seen Wembanyama operate more on the perimeter, as he attempted nine 3-pointers in Game 6. Wemby has also had five or more 3-point attempts in four other games.
While there's no question he can knock down those shots, the Thunder would almost live with it if it means keeping Wemby out of the paint.
It's worth noting that in the series opener, Wemby attempted only two 3-pointers, yet he finished with a game-high 41 points.
If I'm a Spurs fan, I'd be somewhat worried if Wembanyama were attempting more 3-pointers, because I think it could indicate a change in mindset.
Hartenstein grabbed 13 and 15 rebounds in two of the Thunder's series victories, and his odds of +510 are a clear market opportunity.
Considering he's the top rebounding finisher in 18.8% of my simulations, I would argue Hartenstein's odds should be closer to +430.
Given the correlation we've seen with these markets, a Thunder victory would certainly help boost Hartenstein's chances of finishing as the top rebounder.
Pick: Most Rebounds: Isaiah Hartenstein (+510)
