The NBA playoffs resume with one critical Game 5 today, Wednesday, May 13 — and our NBA betting expert Brandon Anderson has locked in a total of five picks for tonight's matchup between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons.
Continue below for our NBA picks, predictions, and props for Pistons vs Cavaliers Game 5 tonight.
NBA Picks, Predictions, Props for Pistons vs Cavaliers Game 5
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Jarrett Allen Rebounds Mineshaft
Jarrett Allen Under 7.5 Rebounds + Mineshaft
My first play is Jarrett Allen Under 7.5 Rebounds, which you can find at even-money (+100) over at BetMGM.
We talked about this in the series preview—the rebounding in this matchup hasn't looked like what we expected, but that’s because the bigs on both sides are basically just hammering each other and clogging up the paint.
Allen is averaging a measly 4.8 rebounds per game in this series on just 11.8 chances. That is a 40% conversion rate, which is frankly pathetic for a guy his size.
If you look at the broader sample, Allen has stayed under 7.5 rebounds in 9 of his 11 playoff games. He had two massive outliers where he grabbed 15 and 19 boards, but outside of those two games, he’s averaging around that same 4.8 mark.
My philosophy on these is simple: there’s no penalty for losing the bet by 10. If he decides to have a random 20-rebound night, we lose once and move on.
I’m also looking for the “Mineshaft” play here—keep an eye out for an alt-under of 5.5 rebounds. He has hit that under in over half of his playoff games so far.
Pick: Jarrett Allen Under 7.5 Rebounds + Mineshaft
Tobias Harris Propstravaganza
Tobias Harris Propstravaganza
This is a three-star Propstravaganza because Tobias Harris is legitimately the second most reliable player the Pistons have right now. He’s played 36+ minutes in six straight games because Detroit is simply running out of two-way guys.
I’m attacking this from a few angles. First, I’m taking him to score 20+ points at +200 on DraftKings. Until Game 4, he had scored 20 or more in eight straight games. He had a bad second half last game and finished with 16, but he’s still only two points off his average. He's been a model of consistency in these playoffs, putting up 21 or 22 like clockwork.
On the glass, I’m looking at Over 6.5 Rebounds (-115 at FanDuel). He’s hit this in 8 of 11 playoff games and has recorded at least six boards in all but one.
Because Jalen Duren and Jarrett Allen are busy wrestling each other out of the play, Tobias is swooping in for these freebie rebounds.
I’m also big game hunting here: Harris to lead the series in rebounds is +650 at DraftKings. He’s currently tied for the lead with 28. If the bigs keep neutralizing each other, Tobias is the guy who benefits from the ball bouncing long.
Pick: Tobias Harris Propstravaganza
Evan Mobley Rebounds Prop
Evan Mobley Over 7.5 Rebounds
If Allen and Duren aren’t getting the boards, and Ausar Thompson can’t stay on the floor, someone has to get the rebounds. That someone is Evan Mobley. I’m taking the Over 7.5 Rebounds (-122 at FanDuel).
Mobley had a nightmare Game 2 with only one rebound on eight chances, but in the other three games, he’s averaging 8.3 boards on 19 chances. His volume is rising as his minutes have climbed from under 35 in Game 1 to over 39 in Game 4.
Cleveland needs him out there for his defense, and the longer he’s on the floor, the more chances he gets. He has recorded at least 7 rebounds in all but two playoff games this year.
I’m also looking at the series-long play: Mobley to average 8 rebounds per game for the series at +650 on DraftKings. He’s had games of 8, 8, and 9 in this series—that one-rebound outlier in Game 2 is the only reason this price is so high.
If we get this series to go six or seven games, he only needs to average about 10 or 11 the rest of the way to hit that mark.
Pick: Evan Mobley Over 7.5 Rebounds
Jalen Duren Double-Single
Jalen Duren Under 12.5 Points + Under 9.5 Rebounds (+162)
I am calling this a “Double-Single” for Jalen Duren. He's laid an absolute turd in this series. I’m taking the parlay of Under 12.5 Points and Under 9.5 Rebounds at +162 on DraftKings.
Duren has stayed under 12.5 points in all four games this series, shooting a miserable 44% on twos. For a guy who basically only dunks, that is pathetic efficiency. He’s clogging the lane and turning it over, and honestly, the Pistons have been better off with him on the bench.
His rebounding has been even more disappointing. He is leading the round in rebounding chances at nearly 22 per game, yet he’s only averaging 7.0 rebounds. That is a 32% rebounding rate—which, again, is pathetic. You're seven feet tall; put your hands up and catch the ball! He’s getting boxed out by two Cavs on every possession and he has no answer for it.
This "Double-Single" bet has hit in two straight games, and he only has six rebounds combined in those two outings. He’s not scoring, he’s not rebounding, and I want to bet against him for the branding alone.
Pick: Jalen Duren Under 12.5 Points + Under 9.5 Rebounds (+162)
Daniss Jenkins Assists Escalator
Daniss Jenkins Over 2.5 Assists / 4+ Assists
Detroit is running into a wall with some of their role players, and Daniss Jenkins might just be the solution to that problem. I’m taking Over 2.5 Assists (-108 at FanDuel), and I’m sprinkling the escalator for 4+ assists at +220.
Cleveland is putting a ton of pressure on Cade Cunningham, trapping him and forcing the ball out of his hands. Detroit needs a secondary ball-handler who can actually play defense, and that’s Jenkins. While his minutes shrunk to 18 and 21 on the road, young role players are historically much better at home.
The floor here feels safe: Jenkins has recorded at least two assists in every playoff game except one where he played under seven minutes. He’s cleared the 2.5 mark in six straight games. Even in limited minutes last game, he had eight potential assists.
I’m banking on the "hockey assist" script here—Cade gets trapped, throws it to Jenkins, and Jenkins moves it to a shooter like Duncan Robinson. He’s averaging 6.8 potential assists for the series, and at home, those conversion rates go up as the team runs more in transition.
One extra assist more than doubles our payout on the escalator, and in a game where Cade needs help, Jenkins is the guy who can provide it.
