NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Bet Patrick Williams and Isaiah Stewart (Oct. 26)
Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Williams #44 of the Chicago Bulls.
- With a packed slate of NBA action, our props analyst has found three bets with value to target tonight.
- He's fading two players and also backing Nic Claxton to go over his point total.
- Check out Tyler Schmidt's picks and analysis below.
Tonight features a 10-game NBA slate with plenty of great matchups, including two on ESPN. These three props may not feature the best players on the slate, but they are the props that stood out in our model this evening.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Isaiah Stewart, Under 0.5 3-Pointers Made (+150)
|Pistons vs. Hawks||Hawks -7.5|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
After a win at home against the Magic in their season opener, the Pistons have lost their next three games on the road by an average of 18 points per game. It looks like another tough season for the Pistons as they get set to host the Hawks as 7.5-point home underdogs.
Despite the Pistons’ struggles, center Isaiah Stewart has had a great start to the season by averaging a double-double with 11.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. He has even starting shooting more 3-pointers and has made one in each of his first four games. However, he is shooting just 22.2% from downtown.
Stewart may have made one 3-pointer in each game thus far, but getting +150 value on DraftKings for him not to make one tonight feels like a great side to bet on. In his previous two seasons, Stewart attempted fewer than one 3-pointer per game. There will come a time where the Pistons tell Beef Stew to stop shooting.
This is also a matchup where the Pistons may struggle from behind the arc in general. The Hawks have allowed opponents to make only 9.3 3-pointers and shoot 29.5% from downtown, which ranks as the third-best in both categories. Take the juice on this Stewart prop tonight on DraftKings.
Nic Claxton, Over 11.5 Points (-105)
|Bucks vs. Nets||Bucks -4|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN|
One of the best game environments for points tonight is this matchup with the Bucks as four-point home favorites against the Nets. The total of 233 points is tied for the highest on the slate as these two teams have tons of firepower. This game will be on ESPN with many eyes watching on Wednesday evening.
The headline will be Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Kevin Durant, but our player prop to target is Nic Claxton Over 11.5 Points. With an increase in playing time, Claxton has averaged nearly a double-double with 16 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks per game. He has played 34 and 33 minutes in his last two games.
With stars like Durant, Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons on the team, Claxton gets overlooked a little bit with how effective he is on the floor. Through three games, Claxton is shooting 75% from the field and has scored 12 or more points in every game. Our model has Claxton projected for 15.3 points tonight.
Over the last few years, the Bucks have been very stout with their interior defense. Obviously having Antetokounmpo is a huge help, but Brook Lopez can hold his own as well. However, when Claxton plays 19 or more minutes against the Bucks, he is averaging 12.8 points while shooting 66.7% from the field.
Patrick Williams, Under 11.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
|Bulls vs. Pacers||Bulls -7.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
What a disappointment Patrick Williams has been in his career. The former fourth overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft is having his worst season to date. He is averaging 5.3 points, 2.3 rebounds, and he has yet to record an assist through four games. We’ll gladly take the under on his points, rebounds, and assists prop line.
Not only has Williams been playing poorly, but his minutes are taking a hit. In his last two games, Williams has played only 16 and 15 minutes. With all of the Bulls players healthy, it is tough to see Williams getting increased playing time when he is struggling so much
Our model has Williams projected for only seven total points, rebounds, and assists, which is well below his prop line. He is still projected to be in the starting lineup, but who knows how long that will last. Williams continues to be arguably the Bulls’ best perimeter defender, but that can only get a player so far in this league.