Kings vs. Grizzlies NBA Player Prop: Grab the Value on Domantas Sabonis’ Assist Prop (November 22)

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Domantas Sabonis, 5.5 Assists

After dropping their first four games of the season, the Kings have won nine of their past 11 games. With a tough test against the Grizzlies tonight, I’m keying in on Domantas Sabonis’ assist prop.

Sabonis has eclipsed this line in nine of his past 10 contests, averaging exactly 6.0 assists per game on the season. He’s second on the Kings to De’Aaron Fox in both potential assists (9.9) and passes made (52.2) per game.

In his first full season in Sacramento (and first under head coach Mike Brown), Sabonis’ scoring (17.5 points per game) and shot attempts (10.4 per game) are down compared to his three seasons prior. But he’s remained a crucial part of the offense as a distributor.

He’s seeing the same amount of elbow and paint touches as he has in the past. The difference is that Sabonis is being used as more of a facilitator to open up shooters. Of the seven-year pro’s 90 assists this season, 50 have been to 3-point shooters, and only 19 have been at the rim (all per PBPStats).

This should be especially significant tonight against the Grizzlies. Not only does Memphis allow the second-most assists per game (27.2), but also the fourth-most 3-pointers (13.4), and the eighth-most spot up shots made per game (10.1).

Against the length of Steven Adams and Jaren Jackson Jr., Sabonis is more likely to pass out of the high or low post. In Sabonis’s first matchup against the Grizzlies earlier this season, he recorded nine dimes and took only six shot attempts.

This game should be fast-paced and high scoring. I have Sabonis projected at seven assists tonight, and would play this up to -145.

Pick: Domantas Sabonis Over 5.5 Assists (-130)

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