The NBA regular season is back in action with a light 3-game slate on Saturday, April 4 — but we've still got you covered with player prop predictions for all three of today's contests.
Our NBA player props for Saturday are targeting Julian Champagnie, Jalen Duren and more. Continue below for our NBA player prop picks for tonight.
NBA Player Props for Saturday, April 4
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Spurs vs. Nuggets Player Prop Pick
Julian Champagnie Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+135)
By Matt Moore
You can find this prop around +135, and I love the value here based purely on Denver’s defensive geometry.
The Nuggets are in a bind with their pick-and-roll coverage. They have two real options, and both lead to open looks for Julian Champagnie.
- Option 1: If they drop Jokic, their guards panic and over-help at the rim, leaving the corners wide open.
- Option 2: If they bring Jokic up to the level of the screen to contain the ball, they have to rotate on the backside. Denver isn't crisp enough to cover that ground. Once the ball swings to the other side or hits the pocket pass, the weak-side rotation almost always leaves the corner shooter open.
While Harrison Barnes leads the Spurs in corner attempts, Champagnie is the sniper I'm targeting. He’s shooting 40% from deep this season, and I’m banking on the Nuggets' scheme continuing to treat him as the acceptable sacrifice.
Denver’s defense is designed to stop the primary action, but it consistently bleeds corner threes to high-percentage secondary options. I’m betting they leave him open, and I'm betting he makes them pay. Give me three-plus threes for Champagnie at a plus-money price.
Pick: Julian Champagnie Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+135)
Wizards vs. Heat Player Prop Prediction
Davion Mitchell Over 10.5 Points (-120)
Action PRO is projecting 11.6 points for Davion Mitchell in the Heat's matchup against the Wizards today, presenting a solid 11.8% edge against his current prop line of over/under 10.5, which is strong enough to mark the Over with a B grade in our system.
Mitchell has scored 11+ points in eight of his last 12 games, while reaching 14+ points in four of those contests; and he scored 21 points on 40+ minutes of action in his latest outing.
This should be a good spot for him to keep the momentum going in a matchup against a Wizards squad that ranks 29th in both defensive rating and points allowed per game.
Pick: Davion Mitchell Over 10.5 Points (-120)
Pistons vs. 76ers Player Prop Bet
Jalen Duren Over 34.5 Points & Rebounds (-125)
By Joe Dellera
The 76ers are playing on the second half of a back-to-back tonight — so, I doubt we'll see Joel Embiid suit up for this one.
Jalen Duren has been awesome for the Pistons this season and has really stepped up with Cade Cunningham sidelined.
Since Cunningham went down, Duren is averaging 23.3 points and 11 rebounds. He is leading this Detroit team.
Duren has also played well in previous matchups agains the Sixers. In two games vs. Philadelphia, he has recorded 37 and 24 PR — but note, the game in which he recorded 24 PR, he only played 15 minutes.
There should be plenty of upside for Duren in this spot. Philly is a bit thinner on the interior than usual — and with the Sixers being weaker in the restricted area, Duren draws a great matchup inside tonight.
Pick: Jalen Duren Over 34.5 Points & Rebounds (-125)
