NBA Playoffs Matchups And Storylines: Beware The Letdown Spot

A look at storylines and bets for the Sunday quadruple-header in the NBA playoffs as soon as I find my broom…

NBA Playoffs Matchups And Storylines: Sunday, April 28

Knicks vs. 76ers: Can We Get A Normal Series Now?!

In Game 1 of this series, every Knicks starter lost their minutes; they were all in the negative in plus-minus. Every Sixers starter was a plus. The Knicks won behind a +37 out-of-body experience from Miles McBride, which, hey, that's sports. That happens, especially at home.

Game 2 was just sheer insanity with the wildest final minute of play you're going to see this side of the 2013 Finals.

Game 3? Game 3 was just a normal basketball game, outside of Joel Embiid losing his mind in the first half and then shooting out of his mind in the second. But this is pretty important; once the series got out of the state of New York, this is a series where the Sixers have played better and been in a position to win all three before incomprehensible events occurred.

Now, maybe those events continue; this is the Knicks we're talking about, and everything seemingly that can happen to the Sixers will and does happen including their star player contracting Bell's Palsy.

But the rest of Game 3 was notable in that it was… normal. The Sixers hit more threes, Embiid had a monster game with 50 points and eight rebounds, Jalen Brunson was a beast with 39 points on 27 shots, and outside of Josh Hart hitting four threes and Tyrese   struggling, it was a pretty normal playoff game. Embiid scoring 50 definitely seems like an outlier given that he shot 5-of-7 from 3 with one eye open, but this is a player that would have led the league in back to back scoring seasons if he had been healthy this season.

The Sixers' role players stepped up and played better defense against a Knicks team light on shot creation.

Much of where I've gotten to with this series is that if Embiid had not gotten hurt, and things had played out something similar to the rest of the season, it's very likely we'd be seeing this series in the second round with the Sixers as the two-seed and the Knicks as the three-seed. If that were the case, would I have been surprised if the Knicks won Game 3 and 4  to even the series with two games full of absolute craziness? Not at all. Would I have expected the Knicks to a. have won one in Philadelphia and b. win the series? It's definitely possible but I wouldn't have expected it.

More than anything, though, it's that through that lens, the Sixers' situation doesn't seem so dire. I've bet Sixers futures on the premise that fully healthy, or anything close to it, they are a three-seed, and should be capped closer to how they were before Embiid went down than they are now. Now, again, I don't know how to handicap Bell's Palsy on top of a meniscus tear, but we do the best we can.

I think the Sixers are very live in this series.

Trend: Two-seeds are typically favored on the road. But this is not a typical situation. Two-seeds who are more than 4-point dogs on the road in the first round are just 2-10 straight up and 3-9 ATS since 2003.

Pick: Sixers -4.5 (1u)

Oubre's Tail

Kelly Oubre went under his PRA line in the first two games, then settled down and had a monster game in Game 3 with 25 points + rebounds + assists. As Embiid returns to form (even with Bell's Palsy, I guess?) and starts to put more pressure on the Knicks, New York will start to creep up help on his mid-range and 3-point jump shots.

The secondary read is something that Embiid struggled with in year's past but he's gotten much better at.

Look where Oubre's defender, Josh Hart, is at on this play with a high screen by Batum and Embiid rolling. Look at the space Oubre has.

That's a lot of what we saw in Game 3 and I don't expect that to be where the Sixers make adjustments. Rebounds are hard to come by with Josh Hart and the rest of the Knicks around but with Mitchell Robinson questionable, that might provide a slight edge here.

Oubre also gets a fair amount of pick-and-roll and transition opportunities with the ball in his hands.

Pick: Kelly Oubre Over 17.5 PTS + REB + AST (-110, DraftKings)

Bucks vs. Pacers: Beware The Letdown Spot

Damian Lillard is doubtful with Achilles soreness. Obviously, the Bucks can't risk it with Lillard and a sore Achilles. No one has forgotten the 2019 Kevin Durant fiasco. So he'll be out this game, and it's equally unlikely Giannis Antetokounmpo will play, given that late last week, it was reported he hadn't even started running yet.

So the Pacers are in a great spot here to go up 3-1 and take control of the series and potentially steal this series before the Bucks can even get Giannis back.

However… the whole dynamic of this game changes now. Coming off an overtime thriller, against a team without its two best players, with a Sunday early evening start, there have been few bigger letdown spots than this for the Pacers.

NBA players play so many games across so many months that slight emotional dips can be devastating for effort. It's entirely possible that the Pacers go out and wreck the Bucks without their two best players. They might sense the moment is theirs and want to capitalize. But I'm slightly concerned that in this particular spot, things could get weird.

Khris Middleton has been the best Buck on both ends. He's still going to play. The Bucks will play 1. free, 2. with no expectations on them, and 3. with the cliche but very real in the minds of athletes "no one believes in us" chip on their shoulders.

That's a dangerous combination to face for a young playoff team that hasn't exactly breezed through this early test despite being up 2-1.

Trend: 6-seeds favored in the first round are just 31-37 (45.6%) ATS since 2003.

Pick: Bucks +10 (0.5u) & Bucks ML (0.5u)

No Dame Time Like The Present

Without Lillard, you can expect Malik Beasley to step into the starting unit. The Bucks will in all likelihood keep Patrick Beverley on Tyrese Haliburton and put Beasley on Andrew Nembhard who Lillard was guarding. They might switch those and put Beverley on Nembhard and Beasley, bigger and more physical, on Haliburton.

The alternative is to start the sneaky good AJ Green but that seems like too bold a move for Rivers.

Nembhard made sure to involve Lillard in as many pick and rolls as possible, it's one reason why he's had such a high usage in this series so far. Nembhard is 6-0f-10 vs. Lillard in this series via NBA.com's admittedly wonky tracking data.

A better pick and roll defender should be able to close that space on him, and whether it's Beasley, Green, or Pat Connaughton who take the starting spot, they're all a defensive upgrade on Lillard.

If the Bucks move Beverley off Haliburton, Haliburton likely becomes more aggressive and that opens up his game.

Either way, I like the under on Nembhard points plus assists

Pick: Nembhard Under 15.5 PTS + AST (-106, FanDuel)

Timberwolves vs. Suns: The Sun Might Not Set

I gave out under 5.5 games for this series on Buckets with the idea that either the Wolves would adapt from the regular season and dominate the Suns, or they wouldn't and Phoenix would roll. The Wolves adjusted. Suns commentators are obsessed with the team's lack of heart, hustle, focus, and leadership, but it ignores a few ways Chris Finch has coached circles around Frank Vogel in this series, thanks to having more options at his disposal.

The Suns have been caught off guard by the Wolves' guard pressure and have been unable and unwilling to try and get the Wolves out of the matchups Minnesota prefers. The Suns don't try and slice you up and get you to react; they don't push on your pressure points to create easy buckets. They approach with blunt force, mid-range jumpers by elite shooters. But that approach has largely crumbled with the Wolves' point of attack defense and ability to cut off all ball movement otherwise. There's nothing easy for the Suns, and that's been difficult.

There are some signs they started to figure a few things out, however. The Suns managed to get Jaden McDaniels on Kevin Durant for long stretches of Game 3. McDaniels is a phenomenal defender but specifically struggles with Durant. Durant went 3-of-5 on those possessions, but the team then struggled around him, scoring just 13 points in 22.6 possessions.

In truth, the Suns' offense was better in Game 3, scoring 112 per 100 possessions. That's not great, but it's not awful, either. (It's around 8th among playoff teams, just behind the 3-1 Denver Nuggets.)

But their defense got torched. Karl Anthony Towns had 18 on 16 shots. Rudy Gobert had 19 points; that can't happen. Anthony Edwards shined with 36. The Wolves had six players in double figures. They had a +20 edge in points in the paint, a +2 edge in 3-pointers made, and double the Suns' 2nd-chance points with 19. The Suns were bodied.

The Suns look ready to be done, I can't deny that. But it so often seems like when teams are ready to be done you should be wary. Winning a game to extend your season and not lose in a sweep in front of your home fans is something to play for. A better effort will generate enough to get Phoenix a win here.

I'm not going to bet it, road favorites up 3-0 are 29-15 straight up, 25-19 ATS since 2003, and 41-19 (68%) SU and 31-27-2 (53.4%) ATS since 2003 in all rounds. But the very easy "the Wolves are way better, the Suns are done" angle sets off alarm bells.

Pick: No Bet

NBA Playoffs Matchups And Storylines: Monday, April 29

Celtics vs. Heat: Can Miami Produce Voodoo Again?

The Heat shot the lights out, better than 50% in Game 2 and then crashed back to Earth on Sunday in their loss to the Celtics.

Top-two seeds on the road favored by more than 4-points are 65-18 straight up, 57-25-1 (69.5%) ATS  in the first round since 2003.

Boston always seems to slip on a banana peel against Miami. Are they done sliding around?

Thunder vs. Pelicans: OKC Trending Upward

The Thunder have shot the lights out with both the best eFG% in the first round of any team and one of the biggest differentials between their expected shooting and actual, per Cleaning The Glass.

New Orleans looks outmatched and Brandon Ingram doesn't appear to have what it takes to lead the Pelicans without Zion Williamson.  Is this proof that the Pels need to move on from Ingram?

Be wary of this game for the same reason as the Suns; teams that are facing a sweep at home historically don't rally and OKC looks hungry, but shooting variance is a lot of this series so far. The Pelicans are shooting 19.4% on corner threes in this series.

Lakers vs. Nuggets: A Gentleman's Sweep?

The Nuggets haven't looked good vs. the Lakers despite a 3-1 lead and it cost them as the Lakers finally beat them for the first time in 12 tries on Saturday.

The Lakers have led for most of the minutes in the series and finally figured out how to close. Jamal Murray's shot looks completely lost and the Lakers got a little confidence boost.

If the Lakers lead at halftime in Game 5, there will be nerves in Denver for a fanbase that finally thought it was past its history of failure. And if LeBron gets a chance to get back to LA for Game 6…

(The Lakers are +1800 at FanDuel to win the series, by the way.)

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