The opening night of the NBA season was fantastic.
The Rockets and Thunder went to double-overtime. Shai scored 35 points. Alperen Sengun went crazy. Luka Doncic put up huge numbers in a loss. Jimmy did his thing, and Steph said night, night.
We’re off and running.
But Wednesday is one of the best NBA nights of the year, the first game for the full League Pass slate. We have a full 12-game slate to find value in.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Wednesday, October 22.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets: Wednesday, October 22
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Nets vs. Hornets
The Hornets took buckets of threes in preseason, finishing 2nd in 3-pointers attempted in the first half.
That’s clearly part of coach Charles Lee’s formula after he came over from Joe Mazzulla in Boston.
This looks like it will be fast with a lot of threes with two teams that can’t defend.
Pick: Over 227.5
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Raptors vs. Hawks
This number suggests that at least one of these teams is bad defensively, and both are pretty fast-paced.
Except that both teams have re-oriented themselves around defense.
The Raptors were the second-best defense after the All-Star break last season.
The Hawks added Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kristaps Porzingis.
The Raptors are applying near-full-court pressure, which will slow down the Hawks getting into their sets.
The Hawks have way better defensive personnel, which should limit Toronto.
This feels like a projection off last year’s team builds, not this year’s. So, I’ll take the under.
Pick: Under 237.5
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Wizards vs. Bucks
Again, I love the Wizards this season and think they’ll be competitive. But this is the Bucks with Giannis in a home opener for a young team.
I make this line Bucks -12 on power rating.
The Wizards’ offense is going to be really challenged until they find some sort of rhythm and supporting scorers.
The Bucks have better depth, and Giannis.
The Bucks’ offense was explosive to end last season, in large part thanks to Trent’s shooting.
With another year in the system against a young Wizards team that can get off-guard, this is a good spot for him to get off to a hot start.
Pick: Bucks -10, Gary Trent Jr. Over 2.5 3PM (-135)
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Clippers vs. Jazz
John Collins Over 0.5 Blocks
The Jazz were the most-blocked team last season, and you have Ace Bailey, who will likely foolishly try the Clippers' good internal defense.
I also like playing Ivica Zubac 3+ blocks at +194 for this same read, but Collins is under the radar and is in a good spot to help down as the Clippers dare bad shooters (outside of Brice Sensabaugh).
Brice Sensabaugh over 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+117)
Sensabaugh is good! And the Jazz let him play, and he lets it fly.
He was one of the league leaders in 3-point attempts per possession in preseason.
Utah will give him burn here, and he’ll make some threes off the bench, because that’s what he does.
Pick: John Collins Over 0.5 Blocks (-115), Brice Sensabaugh Over 2.5 3PM (+117)
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Kings vs. Suns
What could be better than betting on the Kings without Domantas Sabonis and Keegan Murray on the road against a team whose win total over I bet in that team’s home opener?
That said, what is this line?
OK, let’s give Sabonis and Murray a Jokic-level adjustment.
That makes this line Kings -1.5 on the road, fully healthy.
Fine, don’t have an issue with that. But you can’t give Sabonis and Murray that kind of adjustment.
I make the adjustment around 4, which would put this about a point short. As is, I make this Suns -1.5, even with Jalen Green out.
Sacramento doesn’t have a center, but the Suns’ options are not especially dominant.
There are a lot of new faces in Phoenix, and that typically makes for problems early on.
I like Phoenix this season, but I don’t think this is the right number.
Teams that won more games the prior season and are road 'dogs in Game 1 are 50-32 (60%) ATS since 2003.
Pick: Kings +4.5
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Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers
I’m expecting a bounce-back for Minnesota’s defense this season.
The Blazers’ defense can create turnovers against a turnover-prone Wolves' team, but will struggle to convert.
The signs in preseason offensively for Minnesota are positive.
Wait on this one, Anthony Edwards popped up questionable on the injury report. So, make sure he plays before loading.
Pick: Timberwolves -4.5
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