The Thunder evened up the series on Wednesday, but they did it without Jalen Williams, who was injured in the first half. The series shifts to San Antonio tonight and the Spurs will be looking to get De'Aaron Fox on the floor for the first time as well get back Dylan Harper.
Williams, Fox, and Harper are all questionable for tonight's game as of this writing. Stephon Castle, Ajay Mitchell, and Devin Vassell are a few players I like to step up for them tonight. Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Thunder vs Spurs Game 3 on Friday, May 22.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Thunder vs Spurs Game 3
The Angle: Supporting Cast Members Step Up for Injured Teammates
Stephon Castle 15+ Points
Castle has a tough assignment in this series as he has to guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at one end while handling the Thunder's tenacious ball pressure at the other. In Game 2, he struggled doing both as SGA scored got to 30 points once again and he committed nine turnovers and 20 through the first two games. However, he has also been pretty effective scoring himself.
Castle scored 17 points in Game 1 and 25 points in Game 2. He has now scored 15 points in nine of his last 10 playoff games while averaging 19.3 points per game. He is also averaging 21.6 points over his last eight games against the Thunder. He has scored 15 points in seven of his last eight games against them and 20 points in five of them.
Castle has played 12 games without De'Aaron Fox this season and he averaged 18.9 points per game. He has played just two games without Fox and Dylan Harper this season and averaged 15 points. If both get ruled out, the Spurs will need a lot more from him tonight.
Pick: Stephon Castle 15+ Points
The Correlated SGP: Castle, Mitchell & Vassell Player Props
Ajay Mitchell 15+ Points
In Game 2, I faded Mitchell with Williams' back in his role as the Thunder No.2 option. Despite Williams going out, Mitchell finished with just 10 points in 28 minutes. He had his own injury scare late in the fourth quarter, but he is not on the injury report tonight.
Williams is, however, and this is the fourth time he has injured one of his hamstrings this season. This is the Western Conference Finals, but it does seem a bit surprising that he would play just two days later. If he is out, that should lead to more usage for Mitchell again.
This would be Mitchell's first game against the Spurs without Williams, but he has averaged 16.2 points per game when playing without him this season. He has scored 15 points in each of his last six games without Williams, but 15 points was the low mark. Mitchell scored 18 points in five of those games and 20 points in four of them.
With Chet Holmgren being limited by Victor Wembanyama in this series, SGA will need some help on the road. If Williams is out, the Thunder will need Mitchell to be one of the guys.
Pick: Ajay Mitchell 15+ Points
Devin Vassell Over 2.5 Three Pointers Made
Vassell occasionally struggled with inconsistency in the regular season. However, he has scored in double figures in every game in the playoffs thus far. He has made at least two 3s in nine of those games.
He enters tonight's game having cleared this line in each of his last three games with nine 3s in the first two games of this series. Vassell scored 15 points in both of the games the Spurs were without Fox and Harper while combining for six 3s. Without just Fox, he has averaged 15.3 points and 3.2 3s per game. He has connected for three triples in seven of those games.
However, if Fox and Harper are a go tonight, Vassell can still go over this number. The Thunder are vulnerable to corner 3s where Vassell spends a lot of time to space the floor for San Antonio. In six games against the Thunder this season, Vassell has made three triples four times and Castle, Fox, and Harper were available for two of those overs. He has gotten to four 3s twice in those games, including Game 2 when he made six.
Pick: Devin Vassell Over 2.5 Three Pointers Made
Over 216.5
The Thunder and Spurs ranked first and third in defensive rating in the regular season. Wembanyama won Defensive Player of the Year and Holmgren finished second in the voting. There are also several other All-Defensive Team caliber players in Castle, Lugentz Dort, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso.
Yet, these teams are 4-3 to the over in seven games this season. Every game has had at least 217 points with an average of 227 points. While Game 1 did need double overtime, the first two games both had 237 and 235 points.
These teams were 12th and 16th in pace in the regular season and the Spurs are third in pace in the playoffs. It stands to reason that both teams will want to score in transition as often as possible before the other can set their halfcourt defense.
The Thunder have taken advantage of the Spurs' 20 turnovers in both games with 55 points off them while the Spurs have 27 points off turnovers themselves. If that continues, the over should hit once again.
Pick: Over 216.5
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+495)
- Stephon Castle 15+ Points
- Ajay Mitchell 15+ Points
- Devin Vassell Over 2.5 Three Pointers Made
- Over 216.5
Compounding Angle (+2100)
- Stephon Castle 20+ Points
- Ajay Mitchell 18+ Points
- Devin Vassell 4+ Three Pointers Made
- Over 221.5
