The Oklahoma City Thunder (2-1) and San Antonio Spurs (1-2) will square off in Game 4 of the NBA Western Conference Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Spurs are 2.5-point favorites over the Thunder on the spread (Spurs -2.5), with the over/under set at 218.5 total points. San Antonio is a -135 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Oklahoma City is priced at +114 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Thunder vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks for WCF Game 4 on Sunday, May 24.
Thunder vs Spurs Prediction
- Thunder vs Spurs pick: Spurs -2.5 (-110)
My Spurs vs. Thunder Game 4 best bet is on San Antonio to cover the spread (-2.5). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Thunder vs Spurs Odds for Game 4
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 218.5 -110o / -110u | +114 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 218.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
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Thunder vs Spurs NBA Western Conference Finals Game 4 Preview
San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview, Analysis
It all started so well. The Spurs won Game 1 in thrilling fashion behind an incredible performance by Victor Wembanyama to steal homecourt advantage from the Thunder right off the bat.
But heading into tonight, the Spurs face a must-win situation on their home floor. You simply can’t go down 3-1 to the Thunder and hope to win three straight games.
The Spurs’ injury report is clear, surprisingly. De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper will apparently play. I will admit that I had Cavs Game 3 / Spurs Game 4 lined up as similar caps, and the Cavs got absolutely destroyed last night. But the Spurs are better than the Cavs and have shown they can beat the Thunder consistently this year.
I don’t think the Thunder can win three straight games versus Wembanyama, and I don’t trust OKC's shooters to stay this hot either.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview, Analysis
Ever since losing Game 1, The Thunder have gone back to being the best team in the league, and they won Game 3 of this series on the road, making their recent success seem even more credible—while the Spurs look banged up, inexperienced, and rattled.
I liked the Thunder last game. It was a spot where OKC could carry its adjustments from Game 2 and the Spurs were likely to not overcorrect given the series was tied 1-1.
Now it’s Game 4, and the question is whether or not Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the rest of the Thunder's supporting cast will keep tearing through everything in their path as they inch closer to the league's first repeat title since 2018.
Thunder vs Spurs Picks, Betting Analysis
Spurs -2.5 (-110)
Game 4 is the ideal spot to back the Spurs. There are a few specific tactical adjustments you’re likely to see out of San Antonio tonight:
- Defensive Rebalancing: They can balance out and send less help at SGA, cutting off kickouts to supporting players like Jared McCain and Jaylin Williams.
- Perimeter Regression: Conversely, they can keep that exact same scheme and likely expect better shot variance after OKC shot the lights out in Game 3 on kickouts from Shai (who logged 12 assists).
- Role Optimization: They can move some of the creation responsibilities away from Stephon Castle and use him more as a finisher and spot-up shooter, where he’s been significantly better.
- Fox's Efficiency: Assuming Fox plays, was a +9 in Game 3 and displayed great efficiency, which is highly promising.
Then there’s this historical trend to back it up: Teams that are down 2-1 after losing at home in Game 3 and are still home favorites go 23-7 SU and 18-11-1 (62%) ATS, and that trend holds up even deeper in the playoffs.
I’ll lay the points with the Spurs in Game 4 tonight.
Under 218.5 (-110)
Overs have been on a crazy run across the league, but we’ve seen sharp action hitting the under on this line.
I am fully expecting the Thunder offense to take a dip in this spot.
The Thunder have figured out how to create turnovers more and more as the series has progressed, but the Spurs’ transition defense has been downright heroic.
Ultimately, the Thunder shooters are just too inconsistent to sustain this pace, making this an ideal spot to take the under.
Alex Caruso Over 10.5 Points (-112)
Even if the OKC offense dips as a whole, Alex Caruso won’t. He’s an absolute gamer, and the move to the road didn’t cause his production to dip.
Caruso will continue to get both premium corner threes and regular slip opportunities out of their actions.
He’s consistently gone over this number the further the playoffs have progressed because that’s exactly why the Thunder manage his minutes so carefully: so he can make a huge impact right here and now.
Luguentz Dort Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-145)
Lu Dort not only isn’t shooting well from deep right now—he’s a mere 2-of-8 in this series—but he’s also actively losing minutes. He’s not playing any more than 30 minutes in these games, and the Thunder's coaching staff keeps finding opportunities for other weapons.
Dort also just isn’t as critical to OKC's current roster construct against this specific opponent; there’s no massive wing for him to mirror and attack on San Antonio.
De'Aaron Fox Over 14.5 Points (-120)
Okay, they say he’s good to go, so I'll trust it. Fox aggravated his ankle in Game 3 and still managed to go over this number anyway.
He consistently finds ways to get downhill against this Thunder defense, which is incredibly difficult to do, and the Spurs use a lot of Spain pick-and-roll looks with multiple screeners to get him the exact right angles.
Jaylin Williams Over 4.5 Points (-135)
Williams is a much more natural operational fit in this series. Isaiah Hartenstein has reclaimed his stake for heavy minutes by going full-on Bloodsport on Wembanyama, but Williams will still get his share of minutes and remains a natural fit.
I understand the idea that I’m banking on overall offensive regression, so I shouldn't normally take an over on a player like Williams, but the number simply hasn’t moved where it should based on his actual role and minutes.
Matt Moore's Thunder vs Spurs Game 4 Best Bets
- Spurs -2.5 (-110)
- Under 218.5 (-110)
- Alex Caruso Over 10.5 Points (-112)
- Luguentz Dort Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-145)
- De'Aaron Fox Over 14.5 Points (-120)
- Jaylin Williams Over 4.5 Points (-135)
