The Indiana Pacers (1-0) and Cleveland Cavaliers (0-1) will face off in Game 2 of their second round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Cavaliers are 7.5-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread (Cavaliers -7.5), with the over/under set at 229 total points. Cleveland is a -305 favorite to win outright, while Indiana is +245 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, May 6.
Pacers vs Cavaliers Prediction, Picks for NBA Playoffs Game 2
My Cavaliers vs. Pacers Game 2 best bet is on Indiana to go over its team total of 110.5 points, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Pacers Team Total Over 110.5 Points (-110)
Pacers vs Cavaliers Odds for Tuesday, May 6
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 229 -110o / -110u | +245 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 229 -110o / -110u | -305 |
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers spread: Cavaliers -7.5
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers over/under: 229 total points
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers moneyline: Pacers +245, Cavaliers -305
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers best bet: Pacers Team Total Over 110.5 (-110)
Pacers vs Cavaliers Game 2 Betting Preview
The Pacers shocked the Cavaliers in the series opener a few days ago, a theme of the second round Game 1s so far, and now hold a 1-0 lead.
This should be an easy bounce-back spot for the Cavs. But, A.) the Pacers have made it clear in these playoffs they do not care about what should happen, and B.) Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and De'Andre Hunter are all questionable for Game 2 tonight.
That throws this game into a little bit of chaos. And yet, the line hasn’t moved.
Currently in the Action Network app, 75% of the tickets and 75% of the money are on the Pacers, and the spread for Game 2 is still Cavaliers -9 after Game 1 closed -8.5.
Shooting variance was a huge factor in Game 1. There’s a stat for what you are expected to shoot based on where you shoot from based on league averages, and the gap between the expected mark and actual was huge in favor of making shots for Indiana, and it was huge against making shots for Cleveland.
That’s not the whole story. The Pacers rushed the Cavaliers' shots and generated shots that their players can consistently make from lower percentage spots.
The Pacers pushed tempo relentlessly. If they weren’t getting fast-break opportunities, they were initiating offense at 18 seconds or more on the shot clock, letting them work the Cavs’ defense for longer.
Don’t be surprised if Kenny Atkinson presses full-court just a little to get them out of that habit and force a slower tempo.
Some adjustments I’m expecting in Game 2:
- Fewer Sam Merrill minutes. He wound up playing 17, but the fact he started in this game for Garland was absolute insanity. It’s not even really his play, but because his teammates were worried about him on an island, they hedged over, opening up shooting and passing lanes for the helper’s man.
- Potentially fewer Jarrett Allen minutes. Pascal Siakam was 1-of-6 guarded by Allen, and Allen’s physicality really bothered Siakam. That worked. But in pick-and-rolls, the Cavs gave Tyrese Haliburton the switch of Allen onto him. Hali cooked that into charred steak. Haliburton had 14 points and 4 assists. I don’t want to bet a prop angle on Allen, because I’m not sure if the adjustment is to play him less or just have the team blitz/hedge at the level of the screen more in switches. But switching is out.
- The Pacers played a lot of drop coverage vs. Ty Jerome and he ate it alive. Now, they won, and winning teams make fewer adjustments. But Rick Carlisle might move to more switches onto Jerome to avoid giving him dynamic options against the coverage.
- I’m expecting more Isaac Okoro in Game 2, more Hunter if he can play, and another monster game from Mobley, even with the ankle injury. He got whatever he wanted.
As for the side, it’s Cavs or nothing here, but I still can’t get to this number. I make this Pacers +6. I will sprinkle very gently on Pacers moneyline given the injury situations and the spread, but I don’t feel good about it.
The common-sense outcome here is that the Cavaliers kill them. But this has not been a common-sense or trend-based playoffs so far.
Pacers vs Cavaliers Game 2 Betting Predictions
Pacers Team Total Over 110.5 Points
The Pacers will still dictate pace, and they have matchup advantages. Hunter and Mobley are two high level defenders, and if Garland returns, that’s actually bad for the Cavaliers’ defense.
Benedict Mathurin Over 10.5 Points
Mathurin played 23 minutes off the bench in Game 1, and looked like he belonged in this series with his athleticism and size, as well as his ability to create offense.
Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 Points
Siakam struggled with Allen last time out, but consistently got good looks within the offense.
If Mobley is hurt, Allen will have to guard Myles Turner, freeing up Siakam against smaller defenders. Either way it’s a good play.
Aaron Nesmith Over 12.5 Points
Nesmith has gone over this line in five straight games.
He did his damage on spot-ups with Max Strus over-helping, and should continue to get those looks, even with lineup changes.
Donovan Mitchell Over 29.5 Points
Mitchell got whatever he wanted against the Pacers in Game 1, and just missed shots.
Some of the Pacers’ defensive work was great on the other players, but not on Mitchell. They lucked out with his poor 3-point performance.
Pacers vs Cavaliers Best Bets for Game 2
- Pacers Team Total Over 110.5 Points (-110)
- Benedict Mathurin Over 10.5 points (+102)
- Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 Points (+100)
- Aaron Nesmith Over 12.5 Points (-125)
- Donovan Mitchell Over 29.5 Points (+115)
Pacers vs Cavaliers Game 2 Parlay Picks
- Cavaliers Moneyline
- Pacers Team Total Over 110.5 Points
- Donovan Mitchell 30+ Points
Parlay Payout: +425 at bet365
That game script, where Cavaliers win the game, but it’s maybe closer than they’d like because the Pacers continue to score, and Mitchell goes for 30+ makes sense.
If you’d like to go Pacers to cover with it, that bumps it to +1000. But typically if a team covers, they win outright in the playoffs about 67% of the time.
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