Wizards vs. Nuggets Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet the Total in Denver

Wizards vs. Nuggets Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet the Total in Denver article feature image

Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets.

  • The Denver Nuggets are double-digit favorites at home against the Washington Wizards with the over/under set at 223.5.
  • The Wizards, looking to end their seven-game losing streak will likely be shorthanded.
  • Corey Parson dives into the Wizards vs. Nuggets odds and explains why the total has value.

Wizards vs. Nuggets Odds

Wizards Odds+11
Nuggets Odds-11
Time9 p.m. ET
TVNBA League Pass
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Washington Wizards look to end a rough stretch in which they've lost seven in a row and 10 of the past 11 games. To end that streak, they'll need to get a win on the road in Denver against the Nuggets, the first game of their six game road trip out West.

Can the Wizards put together a full 48 minutes to end their misery? Let's take a look at the Wizards vs. Nuggets odds to see where we can find some betting value.

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Wizards Reeling Ahead of Road Trip

It goes without saying but the Washington Wizards are down bad right now. They have lost seven-straight games and 10 of their past 11. They are 3-10 straight up and 5-7-1 against the spread on the road this season.

They have not won a road game since early November when they beat the Charlotte Hornets. In that same timeframe they have covered the spread once on the road against the Chicago Bulls last Wednesday.

Wizards star Bradley Beal has missed four-straight games (10 overall in 28 Wizards games) and is questionable with a hamstring injury again tonight. To put it bluntly the Wizards are pitiful and I don't expect them to get any better without Beal on the court. With Beal on the court, the Wizards have a -2.5 Net Rating. With him off, their Net Rating is -2.6.

Injuries aside, Beal's impact hasn't been felt as much this season and they lack the players to fill that role. I had a chance to see the Wizards play live this past weekend when they hosted the Los Angeles Clippers in Washington. What I noticed is that without Beal the Wizards lack a player who can close out a close game.

Washington was winning or covering the five-point spread the majority of the game, but when it was time to put the game away Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma fumbled the bag. The Wizards are tied for the second-most losses in clutch games this season (11), and the second-highest turnover percentage in those games, according to NBA Advanced Stats.

Without Beal on the court, there is no way I can tell you to put your hard earned money on the D.C. basketball team. The Wizards have been road underdogs 11-times this season they are 4-6-1 ATS in those games.

Nuggets Having ATS Woes

The Nuggets were a popular pick to win it all coming into the season. Many fans and analysts alike felt that a healthy Jamal Murray coupled with a “healthy” Micheal Porter Jr. would team up with reigning MVP Nikola Jokic and propel the Nuggets to the top of the NBA mountain. There's still plenty of season left and through 26 games the Nuggets have played well enough to keep their aspirations high.

On the surface, things have gone well for the Nuggets this season. They are third in the Western Conference, 1.5 games behind the New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies for the top spot.

Jokic is off to another hot start — He is one assist per game away from averaging a triple double this season with 23.8 points, 9.1 assists and 10.1 rebounds. Murray has played well in his return, averaging 18.3 points per game, and Bones Hyland has turned into a solid contributor off the bench averaging 14.2 per game. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been a nice addition as well as a 3-and-D piece next to Jokic. Porter Jr. continues to struggle with injuries, though, and will miss his 10th straight game with a heel injury.

Now, if you have been betting on the Nuggets this season you may be singing a different tune. Denver has been a horrible ATS team. They are 11-15 ATS this season, including 0-5 ATS in their last five games. They are 5-5 ATS at home and 8-12 ATS as favorites. To put it simply the Nuggets are overvalued by oddsmakers.

Wizards-Nuggets Pick

It’s not a good idea to back either of these teams against the spread. However, there is value on the total in this one. Both the Wizards (99.03, 20th) and Nuggets (98.62, 23rd) are bottom-10 in Pace this season.

Their games have both been split evenly from an over/under perspective, too, with the Nuggets at 13-13 and the Wizards at 14-14. However, in 10 games this season in which the Nuggets have been home favorites, the under has cashed 70% of the time.

The under has also cashed in three of the Wizards' past four games. Wait until the injury report confirms it, but without Beal to pace the offense, I would bet on the under cashing again tonight.

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