College Baseball Picks, Predictions: Collin Wilson’s Odds, Projections for This Weekend’s Games

College Baseball Picks, Predictions

With three weeks in the books, our college baseball projections with statistics from the 2024 season are here.

Previous projections used base runs and advanced pitching metrics from 2023 to bridge the gap. But now, most starting pitchers have three starts, while offenses are starting to take shape in the power and speed departments.

The third weekend of the season provided a reminder of the struggle for Big Ten teams to compete with their Division I counterparts from the south.

One SEC team made a statement, while another one is opening eyeballs on the power front.

Here are a few notes from the third week of play:

• Alabama is a buy for the national title at +4000 odds or better. The Crimson Tide have won 12 of their 13 games this season, taking games from Indiana and Arizona in Frisco before losing their first matchup to Dallas Baptist in extra innings this past weekend.
• Oregon State ace Aiden May was nondescript in talking about an injury suffered in Week 2. While nothing was mentioned about his elbow or shoulder, the Arizona transfer has resumed throwing and could return for the series against Utah starting March 15.
• After being picked to finish 11th in the SEC, Georgia has caught fire at the plate. The Bulldogs are the top team in the nation in terms of home runs per game and slugging. A top-10 rank in OBP makes this offense lethal, but an ERA over 5.3 suggests the pitching must improve before conference play.

• Arkansas has two pitchers in the top 12 of all Division I pitchers in strikeouts. Junior Hagen Smith and Texas Tech transfer Mason Molina have combined for 60 strikeouts in 26.2 innings pitched.
• Two Vanderbilt pitchers are headed in opposite directions. Friday night starter Carter Holton has an ERA over 6, but an xFIP of 2.94 suggests regression. Sunday starter Devin Futrell also has an ERA over 6, but his xFIP of 5.46 has made the Commodores vulnerable.
• There will be no more Iowa baseball bets in the Action Network App. Starting pitchers Brody Brecht and Cade Obermueller have been excellent starters, but a team ERA of 6.2 — mostly derived from the bullpen — has squandered the Hawkeyes' chance of contending in the Top 25.

Week 4 features plenty of intrigue.

The ACC begins conference play, where Duke vs. Wake Forest will have a potential Super Regional weekend feel in Winston-Salem.

Meanwhile, in the Big 12, Texas will look to rebound in Lubbock against a Texas Tech team that uses its home park, "The Law," as a launching pad. The Red Raiders have one of the highest park factors in the nation.

In our weekly projection, sides are based on a calculation of ERA, FIP and xFIP. The total is based on the same numbers, along with calculated base runs and park factors.

You can use this data along with our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code to get the most value on college baseball this season.

Here are the projections for the top-25 teams with experienced starting pitchers for Week 4:

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