Florida vs LSU Odds, Prediction, Picks | College World Series Game 1 Betting Preview
James Gilbert/Getty Images. Pictured: Florida’s Blake Purnell.
Florida vs LSU Odds
-130 / +110
-130 / +110
We have reached the end of the road. Sixty-four of the best college baseball teams in the nation began the journey, but only two remain in Omaha. The LSU Tigers and Florida Gators will begin a best-of-three series tonight at Charles Schwab Field to determine the national champion.
This opening matchup may look very different from any other we've seen this College World Series, so let's break it down and uncover the best bet to make.
The Gators come into Game 1 of the College World Series finals with a massive rest advantage. They're the only team in the field to have gone 3-0, and their efforts earned them an extra day of rest over their opposition.
Florida is the only team that has been able to drive the ball out of Charles Schwab Stadium this week with any consistency. But despite the power surge at the dish, each of the Gators' victories came by just one run.
That gives us the indication that while Florida will score, so will its opposition. However, the conditions will play right into its strength tonight, as the wind that has been blowing in all week will be blowing out to left field.
On top of that environmental boost, the Gators will face LSU's Ty Floyd. Floyd stepped up big time for his club in the first game against Wake Forest, striking out 10 batters over five innings of work while allowing just two runs.
However, the odds are that performance is an outlier. Floyd posted a 4.45 ERA in the regular season but boasts an FIP of 5.81, which means he's due to regress. He's also a fly-ball pitcher, which, given the matchup and the elements, is not a recipe you want if you're LSU.
Lastly, the LSU bullpen is very likely to regress to its mean in this championship series. It received some incredible performances out of the pen to get to this game, but its good fortune is bound to run out. That will help the Gators put runs on the board tonight.
LSU proved it's the true No. 1 team by taking two of three games from Wake Forest. However, the Tigers must now get back up for a tough series against the Gators.
Florida will not make it easy on the LSU bats tonight, as it'll throw Friday night starter Brandon Sproat. Sproat looked fantastic in his first CWS start, overpowering Virginia's lineup with a power fastball that hit triple digits on a number of occasions.
However, there are some concerns about Sproat facing this powerful LSU lineup. Sproat's power fastball has worked against him at times, making him vulnerable to the long ball. His home run to fly ball ratio was one of the highest on the Gator's staff, and the wind in Omaha tonight will do him no favors.
On top of his fly-ball rate, Sproat tends to give up a great deal of hard contact, as his BABIP comes in at .284 on the season. LSU has made plenty of loud contact in Omaha and has gotten almost nothing to show for it. That luck should turn tonight.
Florida vs LSU Betting Pick
The under has been the way to go during this College World Series, as every game but one has gone under the total and the one that didn't still pushed.
Tonight's matchup has the recipe to buck that trend, as the elements will provide a big boost to these potent lineups.
Speaking of the powerful lineups, both Florida and LSU have solid matchups at the plate with each pitcher having a tendency to give up the long ball.
The LSU bullpen is also due for significant regression, and the Gators' pen has given up its fair share of hits as well. So, there's no guarantee the scoring will stop if both starters get touched up.
With that said, I'm on the over for the first time all week.
Pick: Over 9