2021 NCAA Tournament: The Most Overseeded & Underseeded Teams Based on Our Power Ratings

2021 NCAA Tournament: The Most Overseeded & Underseeded Teams Based on Our Power Ratings article feature image
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Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Derek Culver (left) and Bob Huggins (right).

There are plenty of ways to attack the NCAA Tournament from both a betting and bracket standpoint. One way to find (or fade) a team is to compare the seeds to our college basketball power ratings.

This method isn’t an exact science and is not a blind recommendation for any specific team, but brackets aren’t necessarily seeded in order of best team. The selection committee considers overall resumes, which may differ from how our ratings look at each team.

We’ve identified four teams undervalued by seed and six teams overvalued on the bracket. Be sure to read all of The Action Network’s comprehensive NCAA Tournament coverage before coming to your conclusion.

Underseeded Teams

Loyola-Chicago

Actual Seed: 8
Our Seed: 3

The Ramblers are the most disrespected team in the tournament when comparing their seed to our power ratings, which makes them the 12th-best team in the country. Instead, Porter Moser’s team will face the ACC Tournament champions in Georgia Tech with a second-round date against Illinois waiting. That potential matchup with our No. 2 team overall makes another Cinderella run that much tougher for Loyola.

Florida State

Actual Seed: 4
Our Seed: 2

The Seminoles lost in the ACC title game to Georgia Tech but will have plenty of motivation after the 2019-20 postseason was lost due to the pandemic. Leading scorer M.J. Walker was part of the team that earned the No. 1 seed in last year’s ACC Tournament and forms a formidable trio with freshman Scottie Barnes and transfer RaiQuan Gray.

Connecticut

Actual Seed: 7
Our Seed: 5

The Huskies have won seven of nine games coming into the NCAA Tournament, falling short to Creighton in the Big East semifinals. Dan Hurley’s team is different with leading scorer James Bouknight, who has only played in 14 of 22 possible games.

Wisconsin

Actual Seed: 9
Our Seed: 7

Losers of six of eight games entering the NCAA Tournament, you might be wondering how a nine seed is a little too high for the Badgers. But a closer look at the results shows Wisconsin lost four of those games by five points or fewer, all against Iowa, Illinois and Purdue. The senior-laden team could be a little bit better than its seed suggests.

Overseeded Teams

West Virginia

Actual Seed: 3
Our Seed: 6

Bob Huggins will get his team prepared for No. 14 Morehead State, but our power ratings suggest the Mountaineers are lucky to be seeded so highly.

Virginia

Actual Seed: 4
Our Seed: 6

Virginia rolled to the top seed in the ACC, but a positive COVID-19 test took the team from the tournament. A three-game losing streak at the end of the regular season also showed some warts. This isn’t the same Cavaliers team that has been a Final Four contender in recent years.

Villanova

Actual Seed: 5
Our Seed: 7

The Wildcats may have the resume of a No. 5 seed, but that won’t be the same team that takes the floor in the first round. Jay Wright will need to replace starting guard Collin Gillespie, who scored 14 points and averaged four assists per game this season and will miss the tournament with a left knee injury.

BYU

Actual Seed: 6
Our Seed: 8

The Cougars could be a popular pick after giving Gonzaga a scare in the WCC title game, but our power ratings make BYU two seeds higher.

Florida

Actual Seed: 7
Our Seed: 9

The Gators are reeling a bit, having lost three of four games entering the tournament. A lot will fall on the shoulders of guard Tre Mann, who averages 16 points per game.

Virginia Tech

Actual Seed: 10
Our Seed: 12

The Hokies have played just three games in the last month due to postponements and cancellations.

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