NCAAB Odds, Pick for Boise State vs Nevada
(Photo by Sam Wasson/Getty Images) Pictured: Jarod Lucas
Boise State vs Nevada Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 140.5 -105o / -115u | +220 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 140.5 -105o / -115u | -275 |
Two of the best mid-major teams in the country meet on Friday night when Nevada and Boise State tip off the weekend in the Mountain West Conference.
The Wolf Pack are off to a perfect start to conference play and have only dropped one game all season, resulting in a 15-1 record. Meanwhile, the Broncos have won eight of their past nine, including an upset over Colorado State, and are 11-4.
These could each make the NCAA Tournament and this could be one of the best games of the weekend.
After a challenging schedule to open the season, coach Leon Rice’s team has started to put it together. The Broncos dropped three games in November before posting a 6-1 record in December.
Besides beating the Rams on Tuesday, Boise has picked up multiple victories that will look great on their resume in March. Rice’s squad has defeated VCU, North Texas, Saint Mary’s and San Francisco, who all rank inside the top 110 in the NET.
It helps that this is a veteran roster. Boise State returned two all-conference players in Tyson Degenhart and Max Rice, but it has been the improvement of Chibuzo Agbo making the most headlines.
The Texas Tech transfer, who averages 15.1 points and 5.1 rebounds per game, will need to have another big performance here on the road.
Throughout his coaching career, Steve Alford has been successful at every stop. He led Southeast Missouri State to the Sweet 16 before guiding UCLA to a Final 4.
With this 15-1 start, Alford is looking to add a deep run in March with Nevada to his resume. However, the Wolf Pack could use some more quality wins to help their case with the committee.
Overall, the program’s strength of schedule ranks outside the top 200 by Kenpom, but there are some good wins. The two standout victories were against Quad 1 opposition in Washington and TCU.
Similar to Boise, Alford has built a veteran squad, which is led by a pair of fifth-year seniors in the backcourt, Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear. The two combine to average over 33 points, eight rebounds, 5.5 assists and two steals per game.
Once you add in the two other seniors in the starting lineup, this could be Alford’s best shot with to have a banner year with Nevada.
Boise State vs. Nevada
Betting Pick & Prediction
During a year where overs have been a profitable bet, we're starting to see more low-scoring games now that we have entered conference play, and I think we'll get another one here.
So, my best bet is for the total to fall under 140.5 points at FanDuel, which I would play down to 137.5. I also don’t hate a look at the first-half under if you can get that at 66 points or better.
Nevada ranks 205th, according to Kenpom, in pace, while Boise is 136th. Additionally, both programs are outside the top 280 in field goal attempts per game.
I also like the fact that the Broncos have seen their games against the top opposition be lower-scoring. Against opponents who rank inside the top 120 in the NET, this same play would have cashed in seven of nine games, and those contests averaged 132 points per game.
In this matchup, we have a pair of teams that rank inside the top 75 in AdjD, defensive rebounding and defending 3-pointers. This means there should be a lot of one-shot possessions.
Give me the under in what should be one of the games of the weekend.
Pick: Under 140.5 (Play to 137.5)
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