College Basketball Betting Tip: Take Advantage of Fatigue in Conference Tournaments

College Basketball Betting Tip: Take Advantage of Fatigue in Conference Tournaments article feature image
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Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo talks to forward Xavier Tillman. Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

  • To reach a conference tournament final, teams must play back-to-back-to-back games against increasingly difficult competition.
  • Using Bet Labs, we share a profitable betting strategy that takes advantage of tired legs in conference tournaments.

Mid-major conference tournaments are underway, with each team’s goal to run the bracket and earn an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. The path to a conference tournament title game is brutal, which makes it difficult to be crowned champion. But it creates an opportunity for bettors.

In many conference tournaments, teams play on consecutive days against increasingly difficult competition. The high-pressure matchups, combined with increased player fatigue, can lead to lower scoring games.

Using our Bet Labs database, we find that the under has gone 1,791-1,666-49 (51.8%) in all conference tournament games since 2005. A majority of these games are played at a neutral site, but in many small conference tournaments, the higher seeds actually receive home court advantage in the early rounds.

By eliminating these games and focusing on just contests played on a neutral court, where less familiarity with the surroundings can promote a low-scoring environment, a $100 bettor would increase their profit from $292 to $2,528.

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