Auburn vs Arkansas Odds, Pick for Saturday

When Arkansas and Auburn get together, fun is in store. Since Eric Musselman took over as the Razorbacks head coach in the fall of 2019, each game against Auburn has been an instant classic.

Auburn clearly had the superior non-conference performance, going 11-2, while Arkansas was less dominant against inferior competition. However, the Razorbacks did take down Duke to earn a signature win.

If recent history is any indication, this game will be tight throughout.

Auburn ranks 10th nationally in KenPom thanks to its dominant performances over lesser teams and blowouts against Indiana, St. Bonaventure and USC. However, the Tigers are still very much unproven in a true road setting, where they’re just 0-1 after a tough loss to Appalachian State. Playing in just their second true road game of the season, at one of the best home courts in the nation, could spell trouble.

Auburn's offense has largely come in transition, where the Tigers are scoring a sparking 1.144 points per possession. In the half-court, head coach Bruce Pearl hands the keys to spectacular freshman point guard Aden Holloway. Shooters flank Holloway at every position and All-American candidate Johni Broome is an elite offensive center with his ability to score inside, be a lob threat and even hit the 3.

The good news for Auburn is that Arkansas’s defense has been far less disruptive than usual. The Hogs rank just 84th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, a far cry from the previous three years when they ranked 17th, 11th and 10th. Their inability to force turnovers has led to their ineffectiveness.

So, with little pressure to bother ball handlers, Auburn should get to its spots offensively and be able to run its offense without much struggle. Defensively, Arkansas has been just okay defending ball screens, average at stopping transition and average defending the post. Auburn will have an edge on this end and an advantage on the glass. Arkansas’ foul rate is high, as it usually is, and that’s normally not a problem when the Razorbacks are also forcing a ton of steals. Perhaps a friendly whistle at home can help cover up that weakness.

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Arkansas has already proven it can beat anyone in the country at home. The Duke win was no joke, and the Hogs looked very good on both ends of the floor. But the sword cuts both ways as Arkansas also dropped a head-scratcher to UNC Greensboro at home.

Against Auburn, Arkansas must be crisp on both ends. Like the Tigers, Arkansas will look to force the issue in transition and then settle into a ball screen attack in the half-court. Only 14 teams nationally finish possessions at a higher clip via ball screen, per Synergy. While Arkansas has been solid offensively, it has fallen victim to “my turn, your turn” antics. The Tigers rank sixth nationally in assist rate, while the Razorbacks rank just 294th. It is very hard to beat Auburn's defense while playing isolation ball.

Like Auburn, Arkansas will get plenty of trips to the free-throw line, as Auburn’s aggressive style leads to fouls and the Razorbacks’ talented wings and guards are very hard to stop. However, shooting has come at a premium and the Razorbacks severely lack 3-point options.

Arkansas is clearly worse on both ends of the floor than Auburn, but this is where the magic of college basketball comes into play. It doesn’t matter what the stats say, anybody can beat anybody on any given night. Poll SEC coaches and you’d be hard-pressed to find a scarier environment than Bud Walton Arena, where the Razorbacks are 23-5 over the past three seasons in conference play.

Betting against Arkansas at home — especially as an underdog — isn't usually advisable. Auburn might be the better team, but everything is thrown out the window in a marquee SEC battle between two well-coached, talented and athletic teams.

Trevon Brazile should be a focal point for Arkansas in this game and serve as a key Chess piece as Musselman and Pearl match wits. Playing Brazile at the 5 makes Arkansas incredibly dynamic offensively and will force Broome to defend on the perimeter. Of course, Broome will have the edge in the paint on the other side. Both teams are deep at the forward spot, which is key considering the number of fouls this game could have.

We’re going with the home crowd in a hotly contested, back-and-forth affair.

Pick: Arkansas +4