Davidson vs Saint Mary’s Odds, Pick for Friday
Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Image. Pictured: Aidan Mahaney (Saint Mary’s)
Davidson vs Saint Mary's Odds, Pick
| Davidson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -115 | 122.5 -115o / -105u | +450 |
| Saint Mary's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -105 | 122.5 -115o / -105u | -650 |
Let's head out to Moraga, California, where the Saint Mary's Gaels will host the Davidson Wildcats. Both of these teams have started to trend in the opposite direction to begin the year, and it'll be interesting to watch these two match up.
The Gaels have lost their last three games, but now they'll return home. Meanwhile, the Cats won their last game against Boston University, but they've lost two of their last three.
Below, we have college basketball odds and a pick for Davidson vs. Saint Mary's.
The Cats have been a pretty average team offensively out of the gate, but they'll have to be much more efficient in this matchup. This offense is an absolute snail, so the Wildcats will need to capitalize on every possession.
One thing that stuck out to me right away is the length of this team. This is one of the tallest teams in the country, which you would think gives the Wildcats an edge in the rebounding department.
That's not the case, as the Cats have really struggled to earn second chances on offense. That could put them at a huge disadvantage in this one because the Gaels have been one of the better offensive-rebounding teams in the country.
I'm also surprised to see the Wildcats have struggled to score inside despite their height advantage, as the offense has been far more efficient from 3-point land.
Backcourt mates Angelo Brizzi and Grant Huffman play the majority of the minutes for the Cats, and they'll have their hands full against a talented Gaels backcourt.
I don't see any edge in the metrics where they can generate much success.
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This is one of the slowest offenses in the country, and luckily for the Gaels, their counterpart plays a similar style. This isn't a high-flying offense by any stretch — in fact, it's amongst the worst in the nation in FG%.
This could very well be early-season variance, but considering they're struggling in all phases of offense, I don't think this is going to be a good team moving forward. The Gaels are 349th ineffective FG% and are shooting an abysmal 59% from the charity stripe.
They've done a good job at crashing the boards, ranking 35th in offensive rebounding %. The problem is they haven't been able to capitalize on these opportunities.
Defense is the clear anchor for this squad, as the Gaels are going to lean on it heavily in order to complement their snail-paced offense. They rank in the bottom 100 in defending the 3, but I would take those statistics with a grain of salt.
If the Gaels want to win this game, they'll have to win the backcourt battle. I love Aidan Mahaney, and he's been the one consistent offensive piece from last year's team.
I trust the Gaels' talent in this matchup in order to pull out a victory at home. Randy Bennett should have his team ready to play to bounce back from three consecutive losses.
Davidson vs. Saint Mary's
Betting Pick & Prediction
KenPom makes this total 122, and I'm going to be all over the under in this game. I mentioned how these are two of the slowest-paced teams in the country, and I don't like any of the offensive matchups for either of these teams.
I give a big edge to the Gaels in this game, and I think they'll come out firing after three straight losses. There could be some positive shooting regression coming for Mahaney and Co., but I think Davidson will struggle immensely to score.
It's never comfortable taking an under with a total this low, but it's the best play in my book.
Pick: Under 122.5 (Play to 120)
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