Miami vs Syracuse Odds, Pick: Play This Over

Miami makes the winter trip up north to Syracuse for a key ACC battle between two teams in the middle of the conference standings.

The Hurricanes nearly won the ACC last season, but we've passed the halfway point of this regular season, and the Hurricanes are a clear step below the conference's top tier. The lack of rim protection and increased turnovers have led to significant regression on both sides of the ball and a 3-3 start in league play.

Syracuse as a program is trending up in year one under Red Autry, but the Orange still lack a true high-quality win on their resumé. From a metrics and spread perspective, Miami would not be that elite win in the eyes of the committee, but beating a team that made the Final Four last April would be seen as a real accomplishment for a Syracuse program that has been short on big-time victories.

Both teams love to play in transition as much as possible, and the market opened the total a few points too low for a Syracuse game once again.

Even though the Orange went under on Tuesday against Pittsburgh, the market has consistently undervalued the pace and offensive potential for Syracuse games.

There's still even more room for this Miami defense to fall if opponents can start making 3s. The Hurricanes try to overcompensate for their horrid rim protection by allowing a ton of 3s, so the Canes rank 226th defensively in Open 3 Rate allowed. Despite allowing all of those open 3s, teams have made just 28.8% of 'em.

Syracuse and Miami are allowing a higher percentage of 3s since conference play began, which is just a harbinger of things to come for these two overvalued defenses. Neither is guarding the line well nor has the length to disrupt shooters on closeouts. The 3-point field goal percentage allowed should rise as they face better competition.

Miami's ball pressure has taken a significant step back this year, and they have no natural defender to stop Judah Mintz from getting to any spot he wants on the floor. Elite transition offenses have given Miami trouble all year, as have shot-making guards. Kentucky showcased this at Rupp Arena in the nonconference, and Syracuse loves to run and relies heavily on the shot-making of Mintz and JJ Starling.

Teams have shot just 30.4% against Syracuse from 3 this season, which would suggest that the Orange are one of the best perimeter defensive teams in the entire country. For example, that stat ranks 39th nationally, and a 17-game sample is relatively considerable.

Syracuse has traditionally struggled to defend the 3-point line in its 2-3 zone scheme, and while the defense is marginally better now that they play mostly man, the Orange still don't guard the line nearly as well as that stat (or the market) would suggest.

The Orange rank 293rd nationally in Open 3 Rate and now face a Miami perimeter offense built to exploit these deficiencies defensively. The Canes have four different volume shooters hitting at least 40% beyond the arc and a fifth who shoots over 35%.

The injury to Naheem McLeod hurts the Orange's ability to protect the rim, but it also helps the offense by giving more minutes to the more offensively capable Maliq Brown. Brown grades out considerably better than McLeod from an offensive BPR perspective, per EvanMiya.

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The total for this matchup opened at 156.5 at FanDuel, and it didn't take long for the market to move it up to 157.5 consensus as of Friday afternoon.

Syracuse's pace continues to go faster and faster, especially at the defensive end of the floor, where the advanced metric sites like KenPom continue to slowly overcome the priors of past Syracuse teams that forced teams to play in the half court with their zone.

This version of Syracuse should be priced closer to 160 given that both defenses have major holes — Syracuse from deep, Miami at the rim — and the other is well designed to exploit those weaknesses in this Saturday matchup.

I'd bet the over at 159 or better

Pick: Over 157.5 (Play to 159)

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