NCAAB Odds, Pick for New Mexico State vs New Mexico

Editor's Note: Jamal Mashburn Jr. (lower body) is out for New Mexico.

The Rio Grande Rivalry returns this season after unfortunate circumstances forced the cancellation of the storied series in 2022. As is (usually) tradition, New Mexico and New Mexico State will square off twice this year, and on Saturday it’s the Lobos turn to host.

New Mexico leads the all-time series 123-103, but the recent rise of NM State basketball over the past several seasons has added some fire to the annual contest(s). This year’s version might seem a little more lopsided than usual. The Lobos come in as large favorites with the Aggies in the midst of a rebuild with a brand new coach and roster.

NM State has gotten off to a slow start this season, though its schedule has done it no favors. The Aggies stand just 1-5 against Division I competition, but every loss has come at the hands of a top 170 team per KenPom. Health has been a major issue, as head coach Jason Hooten has already started six different lineups. On Saturday, the Aggies should be almost at full strength. Key transfer Femi Odukale (Pitt / Seton Hall) is back in the lineup, leaving only fellow transfer Brandon Suggs (East Carolina / UCF) as the lone man out.

Despite their record, the Aggies aren’t helpless. This is a talented roster chock full of capable, athletic playmakers. While NM State couldn’t compete with Kentucky, it did take both Fresno State and Louisville to overtime just last week.

Hooten tries to capitalize on his multiple playmakers by running a ball-screen heavy offense. Only three teams nationally have finished a higher percentage of plays via the pick and roll this season, per Synergy. The Aggies try to break down their defenders off the dribble, get into the teeth of the defense, and get to the rim or earn trips to the foul line.

The Lobos have struggled guarding ball screens this season, allowing 0.816 points per possession, which ranks 256^th in the country per Synergy. One of their best in-ball defenders (and star players), Jamal Mashburn Jr., has been out the past few games with injury, and it’s unclear whether he’ll be ready to go on Saturday.

Unfortunately, getting penetration via ball screens is all the Aggies have truly excelled at this season on the offensive end. Shooting has been a struggle this year, and offensive rebounds have been almost non-existent. Odukale’s presence in the lineup should help with the shooting effort, but good luck securing any second chance opportunities against New Mexico’s frontline.

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Unlike their rival, the Lobos have been winning despite the injuries. Head coach Richard Pitino has used five different starting lineups and has barely had his two stars on the floor at the same time, Mashburn and Jaelen House. Sophomore guard Donovan Dent has stepped up in a major way in the guard tandem’s absence, averaging 17 points per contest.

House returned to the lineup last game, and he and Dent are frankly plenty to put points on the board if Mashburn indeed has to sit again. The Lobos’ offensive attack is up-tempo and looks to get out in transition. However, in the half court, they also like to settle into ball-screen heavy actions.

NM State has struggled to stop anybody this season, ranking 294^th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. Given no team has shown much resistance to New Mexico’s dynamic guards, expect the Lobos to find the bottom of the net early and often. Even against Hooten’s packed-in defensive shell, New Mexico should find driving lanes to the cup, and it’ll also hold a significant size advantage up front with Nelly Junior Joseph, JT Toppin, and Mustapha Amzil forming the primary front court rotation.

Defensively, New Mexico has been a chore to score against inside the paint and at the rim. The Lobos have allowed opponents to shoot just 43.7% from two-point range, the 34^th best mark in the country, and they’ve done well at defending without fouling. New Mexico State and its 211^th ranked offense (KenPom) could find it difficult to score.

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Hooten will try to keep a lid on the pace in this one and play in the half court, but oftentimes we see the home team (and the better team) being able to better dictate tempo. If the Lobos can get the Aggies into an up-and-down game, this game could get out of hand.

Conversely, if NM State can take the air out of the ball, as well as hit shots with a healthier, more cohesive unit, and show some resistance around the bucket defensively, it could hang within the massive spread.

Given the nature of rivalry games, the massive number, the improved health of NM State, and the lingering injury trouble for UNM, the best bet here is on the 'dog.

Pick: New Mexico State +17.5