Memphis vs East Carolina Pick & Prediction for Thursday

The Memphis Tigers have to win the AAC Tournament to secure a bid into the NCAA tournament. There is no chance of them earning an at-large bid, so they'll need to continue building toward a conference tournament title by playing their best basketball of the season.

The Tigers head to Greenville, North Carolina to take on the East Carolina Pirates. The Pirates have had a disappointing season and recently got embarrassed by the Rice Owls.

This appears to be a lopsided matchup on paper and the betting splits should also be lopsided.

Despite the abundance of talent on Penny Hardaway's team, the Tigers seem to have trouble putting the pieces together. With the loss of guard Caleb Mills for the season, Memphis has suffered.

The team's offensive capabilities have taken a hit without Mills, but the roster still boasts plenty of talent. One standout addition to the team is Jahvon Quinerly, an Alabama transfer.

Quinerly has had some struggles this year, but has the potential to carry the offense at any point during the game. David Jones, Quinerly's teammate in the backcourt, has also been an excellent asset to the Tigers, as he's shooting over 35% from beyond the arc.

The Tigers should have an advantage in scoring inside the arc, but the Pirates' perimeter defense has been commendable. However, the Pirates are prone to shooting regression on both ends of the court, especially given that they are 338th in 3-point attempts allowed per game.

Their opponents only shooting 31% from deep, so the Pirates are expected to experience some regression.

Defensively, the Tigers have been somewhat lackluster, particularly when defending the perimeter. The team allows a lot of 3-point attempts, and although the Pirates have struggled with their deep shots this season, they are due for some positive regression.

Despite this, the Tigers are skilled at forcing turnovers and don't foul often, which should help them stay in the game — even if they fall behind.

Although many people anticipate an easy win for the Tigers, I believe this is a bad situational spot.

It remains unclear whether the Tigers are invested in the game, and their defensive weaknesses may work against them.

Despite the Pirates' lackluster performance throughout the year, I believe they have the potential to make a comeback in their final few games. Their shooting percentage from deep is 31%, but their metrics suggest they're due for some positive shooting regression.

The Pirates are 124th and 147th in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, indicating that they're a fairly average basketball team with a struggling offense. However, there is some good news.

The Pirates excel at offensive rebounding and taking care of the ball. Guard RJ Felton has a 35% shooting percentage from deep and forward Ezra Ausar is hitting at a 39% clip.

If they both get hot, they could take advantage of Memphis' poor perimeter defense. Despite their unimpressive stats, the Pirates are likely to put up a better fight than expected after their loss to Rice over the weekend.

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It's an ugly pick, but I'm leaning toward backing the Pirates at home. The Tigers are due for regression and I think the Pirates are playing for pride after getting embarrassed against one of the worst teams in the conference. The Pirates should also be able to put up some better offensive numbers against the Tigers' struggling perimeter defense.

I also don't trust Hardaway as a coach because he always seems to blow it with teams full of talent. The Tigers have nothing to play for except tournament seeding, and I think this is a great spot to back the Pirates at the bottom of the market.

Pick: ECU +4.5 (Play to +3)