Saint Mary’s vs Colorado State Odds, Pick for Saturday

Here's Saint Mary's vs Colorado State odds and a pick for Saturday.

Two of the West Coast's top mid-majors face off in the non-conference for the fourth consecutive season as Colorado State welcomes Saint Mary's to Moby Arena on Saturday in Fort Collins.

Colorado State has won the last two meetings, including a big 62-60 upset win at Mary's last year.

The Rams are undefeated, sitting 9-0 in this bounce-back season for Niko Medved's squad, with non-conference wins over Creighton, Colorado, and Washington. The Rams are up to No. 13 in the AP Top 25, presenting an excellent opportunity to sell high on Colorado State on Saturday against a Mary's team in desperate need of a big win before conference play.

While Colorado State has flourished thus far, the Gaels have played one of the most demanding nonconference schedules in the country and have failed to meet expectations by a wide margin. The Gaels are 4-5 and dropped from 38 in the preseason KenPom ratings to 72.

The Gaels are just 4-5, but ShotQuality suggests they should be 6-3 based on the "quality" of shots taken and allowed.

They've had a couple of coin-flip close games result in tough losses, alongside two horrific performances in an MTE against San Diego State and Xavier.

When I ranked the preseason top-10 mid-major teams, I viewed the Gaels as among the nation's best given their returning production and incoming talent.

The offense has been overreliant on offensive rebounds, and those will be hard to come by against a Rams defense that cleans up the defensive glass.

However, positive regression is coming for the Gaels, as they're shooting only 28.6% from deep and 58.6% from the charity stripe. In comparison, ShotQuality projects those numbers closer to 34% and 66% based on the "quality" of attempts.

The Rams rely heavily on Isaiah Stevens-run ball screens, and the Gaels boast a well above-average ball-screen defense, even if their numbers have dipped year-over-year.

Aidan Mahaney's numbers have slid during this sophomore slump, but a matchup against an undersized Colorado State defense could be an excellent get-right spot.

Colorado State is playing considerably faster this season, but Saint Mary's will challenge that.

The Gaels run the shot clock down on almost every possession, forcing games into the half-court. Randy Bennett-led offenses are among the nation's best at generating high-quality looks at the end of the shot clock, and neither defense will allow many second-chance opportunities.

The Rams don't turn the ball over, nor do they push for offensive rebounds, meaning you'll see almost exclusively one-and-done possessions. It's worked well for the Rams thus far because they've been incredibly efficient as a first-shot offense. The Rams are third in 2-point field goal percentage while shooting 38.8% from deep.

This means two things.

First, Colorado State's offensive efficiency marks aren't heavily penalized for ignoring second-chance points.

Second, there will be few opportunities to run in transition on the Rams' defense.

So, as their first-shot offense regresses, I suspect the Rams' transition defense gets exposed, resulting in overall defensive regression.

But, in this matchup, Saint Mary's won't run the floor. Colorado State will only get one shot, but Mary's will grind the game to a halt in the half-court and limit possessions.

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Stevens is among the nation's best point guards and the nation's most dynamic scorers.

But the Gaels have done well against the Rams by playing overly physical and aggressively guarding ball screens to mess with the Medved motion offense.

Like how Brian Dutcher's San Diego State Aztecs have played the Rams well, Bennett, a top-notch game planner, will force the Rams into the mid-range. You can't score in the post on the Gaels, which is where Patrick Cartier loves to operate.

The market has peaked on the Rams' offense, and there's positive regression coming for the Gaels.

I'd bet Saint Mary's at +5 or better and the Under at 136 or better.

Pick: Saint Mary's +5 or better | Under 136 or better

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