Syracuse vs Pitt Odds, Pick for Tuesday

Syracuse and Pittsburgh will conclude their home-and-home on Tuesday in Pittsburgh, 18 days after the Orange rode a second-half comeback to beat their conference rival at home. A year after two NCAA Tournament wins, the Panthers still don't have a quality win on their resumé. Pittsburgh is 0-5 in games against teams in the KenPom top 100 and is 1-4 in the ACC.

If the Panthers want any chance at building an at-large case for the tournament, they'll need to win as a home favorite against Syracuse. The Orange were entirely uncompetitive on the road at North Carolina on Saturday, continuing a trend for Syracuse in year one under new head coach Adrian Autry. The Orange picked up decent wins against Oregon and Pittsburgh, but Syracuse has four losses by 15+ points to top-30 opponents.

Syracuse has beaten teams it should beat, but the Orange have struggled for real consistency and have been prone to high variance in-game swings due to their shot selection and mediocre 3-point shooting.

As Syracuse has switched from Jim Boeheim's legendary 2-3 zone into a more man-centric approach, opposing offenses are playing considerably faster against the Orange. Syracuse consistently ranked in the bottom 50 nationally for opponent average possession length under Boeheim. In year one under Autry, Syracuse is taking chances and gambling for steals. The Orange have been excellent at forcing turnovers — 36th in turnover forced rate and 12th in steal rate — but also concede numerous open shots.

Teams are shooting just 31% against Syracuse from 3, even though the Orange's defense is still conceding plenty of open 3s — 20.2% of the Orange's 3s allowed are considered open, which ShotQuality ranks as the 301st best in the country. Against a Pittsburgh offense that spaces the floor well and generates a bunch of open 3s, there should be some defensive regression for the Orange from beyond the line.

Naheem McLeod's rim protection was a huge part of stifling Pitt at the rim as he had four blocks in the first game between these teams. He's been ruled out and will not play in this game, which also makes the Orange's defense more vulnerable in the paint. North Carolina made 58.8% of 2s on Saturday without McLeod and Boston College made 48.8% of its 2s in the prior game.

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The two primary areas of Pittsburgh's offensive attack are isolation shot making and off the dribble 3-point shooting. The Orange rank 337th and 321st nationally in defending those two areas. The Panthers only had 0.97 PPP in the first meeting in Syracuse, but also shot 11-of-25 from the free-throw line. Pittsburgh generated a ton of open 3s in that game and made 10-of-25 from beyond the arc.

The Panthers' defense is still a top-60 defense per KenPom's defensive efficiency, but the market and KenPom are too high on the true quality of the unit. There's no real reason to expect Pittsburgh's perimeter defense to be anything more than it was last year. Teams shot 32.7% from 3 against the Panthers last year and they were well below average in forcing turnovers.

Pitt is forcing more turnovers this year — right around national average — but the Panthers' defense against the 3 is top 10 in the country. This is classic small sample bias, which has created a market perception that the defense is much better on a point-per-possession basis than it really is. Based on the ShotQuality data, Pitt's defense should be allowing 32% from 3, right in line with last year.

Syracuse is well below the national average in shooting from beyond the arc, but can attack the rim successfully, as it did in the first meeting. The Panthers sent Syracuse to the line 30 times and had little success stopping the Orange from getting good offensive looks from the mid-range and at the rim.

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KenPom's pace projection for this matchup is 71 possessions with a total of 143 points. The market opened this total at 143 and it's multiple points too low. Both offenses have paths to success against relatively soft defenses. There's real defensive regression coming for Pitt on the perimeter and offenses have had little issue getting shots quickly or turning it over against Syracuse all season.

The first matchup also had 75 possessions and given the Orange's willingness to run and gun in transition, 75 is a marginally closer pace projection than 71 for me.

I'd bet the over at 145 or better.

Pick: Over 143 (Play to 145)