DePaul vs. Louisville Odds & Picks: The Spread Bet to Make for Friday
Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Noah Locke #0 of the Louisville Cardinals
- The DePaul Blue Demons take on the Louisville Cardinals in Friday night college basketball action.
- Louisville has excelled on the defensive end of the floor, but can they keep DePaul from putting up points.
- Keg explains why the visitors will keep it close below.
DePaul vs. Louisville Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Last week I was looking at the DePaul-Loyola Chicago game, and as I scrolled through numbers on KenPom, something caught my eye: Louisville.
I’m a Kentucky fan, but I grew up in Louisville; most of my friends and family are Louisville fans. I loved sports as a whole more than just my team, and I still do.
Therefore, I attended a fair amount of Louisville games. The first college Basketball game I remember ever going to was DePaul at Louisville, and to this day, it’s still one of the best games I’ve ever attended. Little to nothing is the same for these two programs since that game in 2004 sparked my love for college basketball. Things are currently in a tailspin for both teams.
First-year head coach Tony Stubblefield is trying to right a ship that’s gone very, very far off course at DePaul. The Blue Demons have been last in the Big East the past six seasons, having just one winning season in the previous 16 years, and have not been back to the Tournament since that ’04 season. But don’t look now; Stubblefield has the Demons at 7-1, their best start to a season since 2019.
While Tony Stubblefield seems to have DePaul on the rise, the Louisville program appears to be crumbling around Chris Mack as the school’s athletic director and the president recently stepped down this week. But Chris Mack and Louisville aren’t strangers to tough times, and there’s one thing that makes tough times a lot easier, winning.
The Blue Demons struggled against Loyola-Chicago in their biggest game of the season so far.
Javon Freeman-Liberty couldn’t seem to get anything going on the offensive end and eventually fouled out. But, in their next game against Duquesne, the Demons were able to make a quick turnaround. The Blue Demons won, 87-63, with Freeman-Liberty finding his rhythm and going off for 26 points, five assists, and nine rebounds.
Through the first eight games, DePaul has been one of the best offensive teams in the country, averaging 85.3 points per game because it has been impressive around the rim.
The Blue Demons are hitting at 55.9% from 2-point range while also being blocked on only 4.9% of shots. When they do miss, the Blue Demons have been able to get the offensive rebound 35.2% of the time.
However, DePaul has had some issues on defense as opponents are scoring 69.3 points per game. It’s have also allowed opponents to shoot 34.6% from 3-point range.
However, the good news is that Louisville only averages 30.6% from 3. If the Blue Demons can limit the Cardinals and display the same level of scoring that they did against Duquesne, this game could be much closer than the spread suggests.
After pulling out a win on the road against NC State, Louisville will look to get another win streak going. Their previous four-game win streak was put to an end by Michigan State.
Against the Wolfpack, the Cardinals eliminated a four-point deficit with under three minutes left in the game. They were so dominant in the final few minutes that they even covered the four-point spread by winning, 73-68.
Louisville’s defense has been one of the best in the country as it ranks 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency. It’s also been able to limit the opposition to just 42.8% on 2-point shooting, an area in which DePaul excels. If the Cardinals can get stops around the basket, they could pull away from the Blue Demons.
The Cardinals have averaged 70.8 points per game and haven’t had much success shooting anywhere on the court, but they’ve been especially bad from outside the arc. Louisville ranks outside the top 250 in 3-point shooting, averaging 30.6% from long range.
DePaul vs. Louisville Betting Pick
Louisville has been excellent on defense, but I’m not sure it will be enough to stop Freeman-Liberty and the Blue Demons.
This spread is also slightly higher than I initially expected, opening up at nine and already moving down to 8.5. Louisville may win, but I don’t see it covering the spread. The Cardinals are 4-4 ATS this season and just 2-3 at home. Meanwhile, the Blue Demons are 7-1 ATS but have yet to play a road game.
Even with it being their first road game, I still think this is too many points, and the Demons offense will be too much for the Cardinals. I got DePaul at +8.5 and would take them as low as 7.5.
Pick: DePaul +8.5 (Play to +7.5)
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