College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions for Iowa vs. Purdue: Expect Lots of Points
Justin Casterline/Getty Images. Pictured: Trevion Williams
- Purdue hosts Iowa in a Big Ten showdown on Friday night.
- The Boilermakers can be considered the best team in the nation after Duke's loss to Ohio State earlier this week.
- Tanner McGrath has this game covered with a preview and a top selection.
Iowa vs. Purdue Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Iowa and Purdue should be one of the most exciting Big Ten matchups we’ll get this season.
While most Big Ten games are low-scoring rock fights featuring a bunch of guys who should be football players, this is the exception to the rule. Both teams feature high-flying, fast-paced offenses with shot-makers at every position.
As such, this total has opened north of 160. But it could be higher.
Keegan Murray has had a breakout season for the Hawkeyes
Many saw the potential, but I’m not sure any college basketball fan thought the ceiling could be this high. Murray is averaging almost 25 points and 10 rebounds per game on 60/35 shooting splits. His 143.2 ORtg is 22nd in the nation, and he currently ranks second in KenPom’s player of the year ratings.
Sans Luka Garza, Fran McCaffery’s offense was supposed to suffer. But it’s thrived. After finishing top 5 in offensive efficiency the last two seasons, Iowa currently sits third. Moreover, given the Hawkeyes’ rapid pace of play, they’re pacing the nation in scoring offense (94 points per game).
Plus, the veteran backcourt of Joe Toussaint and Jordan Bohannon are running this speedy, complex offense to perfection. Iowa is second nationally in turnover rate (11.5%) and non-steal turnover rate (4.4%).
The defense isn’t any good. But that’s been a staple of these McCaffery-led Iowa teams. He bets that Iowa can out-score anybody.
So far, McCaffery has been right. Iowa is 7-0.
Purdue is the best team in the country.
While Iowa’s third nationally in offensive efficiency, Purdue is first. But the Boilermakers pair that offense with a solid defense. Matt Painter has built the perfectly balanced basketball team.
That comes from a perfectly balanced roster. The inside-out offensive combination between Jaden Ivey and Zach Edey is punishing. When those two need a rest, Eric Hunter and Trevion Williams come off the bench and run the same offense to perfection.
Meanwhile, Sasha Stefanovic can roll on the perimeter and shoot the lights out. Ivey and Edey play off each other, but if their two-man game doesn’t work, this 40% 3-point shooter is usually open.
On the defensive end, Stefanovic and Ivey are lengthy, stifling perimeter defenders. The two lead an offense that’s allowed just .795 spot-up PPP, which ranks in the 78th percentile of college players.
But if you drive inside, both Edey and Williams are dominant rim protectors.
This team can beat you in multiple ways on both ends of the floor. The Boilermakers are title or bust.
Iowa vs. Purdue Betting Pick
Sharp money has already hit this over, pushing it up from the open of 159. The smart money is enough to bet this over, but there are plenty of personnel reasons this total will fly over.
Iowa doesn’t turn the ball over, and Purdue ranks 306th in defensive turnover rate (15.8%). Iowa won’t come across many offensive possessions that don’t end with a solid shot attempt.
Iowa will run like crazy, but Purdue cracks the top 150 nationally in average length of possession (17 seconds). Both teams work fast enough to keep up with this number.
Both teams also shoot 3s and allow 3s on the defensive end. So, I’d expect plenty of 3-pointers in this effort.
This game should be played in the high 80s, if not low 90s. Give me the over at anything better than 164.5.
Pick: Over 161.5
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