Michigan State vs Michigan Odds, Prediction | Your Big Ten Betting Guide
Pictured: Hunter Dickinson #1 of the Michigan Wolverines. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
Michigan State vs Michigan Odds
|Michigan State Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
We’ve got a doozy of a Big-10 matchup between two of the better coaches in the country. Tom Izzo and Juwan Howard will battle head-to-head for the second time this season. Izzo won the first meeting on January 7th in East Lansing.
Saturday night’s clash between Michigan State and Michigan is essentially a much win for the Wolverines, as they aren’t currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament. I expect them to come out with a fiery, desperate effort in order to start compiling some wins down the stretch.
With the Wolverines scuffling and the Spartans starting to get into March form, let’s look for the best betting value in this matchup.
In my last Sparty breakdown, I spoke about how bizarre it would be to have an NCAA tournament without Izzo. Well, they certainly have handled their business as of late to assure they’ll punch their ticket to the big dance. Coming off wins against Maryland and Ohio State, Michigan State will look to keep the momentum rolling against its in-state rival.
What has helped the Spartans lately has been their improvement from the 3-point line. The Spartans take a very minimal number of 3s per game, so the fact that they have made 16 in their past two games is excellent.
They need to rely on their solid guard rotation in this matchup as that’s where the Spartans have an advantage over the Wolverines. And Michigan State will need to capitalize on that mismatch since it doesn’t have the bodies to diminish Hunter Dickinson.
Although the Spartans’ defense has been spectacular — 17th in the country in defensive efficiency, per KenPom — I have some regression concerns. According to Shot Quality, the Spartans have a -20.46-record luck, which is the ninth highest in the country.
It’s been a tough go for the Wolverines and they are heading into this matchup with a 14-12 record (8-7 in conference play). The good news is they still have Dickinson, who is clearly the heart and soul of the Wolverines.
Dickinson can absolutely dominate this game. No offense to the Spartans, but the makeup of talent in their front-court is nowhere near the skillset Dickinson has in his repertoire. He scored 18 points and grabbed seven rebounds in the previous matchup against the Spartans, and I think he can do even more damage in this spot. (As a side bet if you’re into props, I would be all over Dickinson’s PTS+REB prop when the line gets released.)
Michigan’s back-court may be outmatched in this matchup, but the Wolverines definitely have the duo in Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin to keep pace with the Spartans.
Michigan’s big problem has been its atrocious free-throw shooting. The Wolverines rank 258th in free-throw shooting %, which has been a main cause of several close losses.
Michigan State vs Michigan Betting Pick
I expect Michigan to take care of business at home, as their backs are firmly up against the wall.
This is also a great spot to back the Wolverines as I predict the market to be heavy on the Spartans given the recent play of both teams.
With the regression looming for the Spartans, as well as the great matchup for Dickinson, this is a great time to buy the Wolverines. It’s go time for Howard’s squad, and Ann Arbor should be rocking.
Pick: Michigan -2
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