Creighton vs. Villanova Odds, Picks and Predictions: Target This Big East Over/Under (Wednesday, Jan. 5)

Creighton vs. Villanova Odds, Picks and Predictions: Target This Big East Over/Under (Wednesday, Jan. 5) article feature image
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Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jermaine Samuels (Villanova)

  • Villanova hosts Creighton after the Wildcats dropped round one to the Bluejays in Omaha.
  • The Wildcats already have four losses, but all defeats came against high-quality teams.
  • Alex Hinton explains why he's betting the over/under in this Big East duel.

Creighton vs. Villanova Odds

Wednesday, Jan. 5
8:30 p.m. ET
FS1
Creighton Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+11
-110
132
-110o / -110u
+400
Villanova Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-11
-110
132
-110o / -110u
-550
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Creighton will enter this matchup with Villanova at 10-3 overall and 2-0 in Big East play. After its game against Georgetown was postponed, Creighton was able to shake off some rust and pull out a 75-69 double overtime victory at Marquette.

Next, the Bluejays will head on the road for a rematch with the Wildcats. The Bluejays won the first meeting, 79-59, in Omaha in December.

The No. 19 ranked Wildcats are 9-4 overall and 2-1 in Big East play. Since its loss at Creighton, Villanova has consecutive wins over ranked opponents, Xavier and Seton Hall. It also had a Big Five matchup against Temple that was postponed.

Villanova will have revenge on its mind after Creighton took round one. However, the value may be on the point total in this one.


Creighton Bluejays

A trio of Ryans lead the way for the Bluejays.

Ryan Hawkins leads the team in scoring and rebounding at 14.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. The 6-foot-7 Division II transfer stretches the floor and is knocking down 38.1% of his 3s on 6.5 attempts per game. He had 19 points and 11 rebounds in the first meeting.

Ryan Kalkbrenner has taken a big leap in his sophomore season and is averaging 12.9 points and 7.2 rebounds. The 7-foot-1 center leads the Big East in blocks per game (2.7) and field goal percentage (71.9%).

Freshman guard Ryan Nembhard has been solid on both ends of the floor this season. He is averaging 12.5 points, 4.6 assists and 1.5 steals a night.

Duke transfer Alex O’Connell came to Creighton with a big reputation as a shooter. While he is just hitting 33.3% from beyond the arc, he is still contributing 11.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.1 steals per game. In some respects, he represents Creighton’s transition as a team.

You typically think of Creighton as a team that likes to run and fire away from deep. This season, the Bluejays are playing at a much slower pace (245th in adjusted tempo) and are shooting 31.6% from 3.

However, Creighton is making 56.7% of its 2-point attempts, which is 28th-best nationally.

In the first meeting, Creighton outscored Villanova 42-28 in the paint and out-rebounded it, 41-30. The Bluejays will look to repeat the same formula on Wednesday.

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Villanova Wildcats

Villanova has four starters averaging in double figures scoring in Collin Gillespie, Justin Moore, Brandon Slater and Jermaine Samuels.

Gillespie leads the way at 16.5 points per game while hitting 40.4% of his 3-point attempts. The super senior was recently named Big East Player of the Week after he averaged 18 points in leading the Wildcats to wins over Xavier and Seton Hall.

Justin Moore is averaging 14.8 points and 4.8 rebounds while Brandon Slater is averaging 10.8 points and 4.1 rebounds per night. Slater is making 60.7% of his 2-point attempts.

Down low, Jermaine Samuels is contributing 10.5 points and 6.8 rebounds while Eric Dixon is averaging 8.2 points and 6.3 rebounds per game.

Sixth man Caleb Daniels is close himself at 9.5 points per game. He missed the Seton Hall game because of COVID protocols, and it is unclear at this point if he will be available against Creighton.

The Wildcats did get Bryan Antoine back against SHU for just the second time this season, as he recovers from a patellar tendon injury. Antoine can make an impact defensively against Creighton and at 6-foot-7, he brings more length and athleticism to an undersized Villanova team.

Villanova is 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 28th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

As a team, it is shooting 35% from beyond the arc. However, against Creighton, the Wildcats shot just 4-of-23 from 3-point range. They will need a much better performance in that area to pull out the win in round two.


Creighton vs. Villanova Betting Pick

In the first meeting, the total got up to 138 points. That was with Villanova only scoring 59 points and having an awful shooting day. I expect positive regression for the Wildcats, particularly from the 3-point line.

Additionally, Villanova is averaging 85.8 points over its last four games at home.

Creighton shot 54.4% from the floor in the first meeting, which will difficult to repeat. However, it still has a size advantage, particularly with Kalkbrenner inside. Scoring inside will give Creighton a ton of easy buckets, especially for a team that converts at a high rate inside the arc.

With the total at 132, I believe that there’s value on the over, and I would play it up to 135.

Pick: Over 132 (Play to 135)

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