College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions for Toledo vs. Ohio (Friday, Jan. 21)
Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan Rollins and RayJ Dennis (Toledo)
- Toledo looks to get revenge on Ohio for last year's MAC Tournament.
- The Bobcats are 14-2 on the season and are guiding by the talented Mark Sears.
- Keg breaks down this mid-major affair and breaks down why he's backing the road team.
Toledo vs. Ohio Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
The two best teams in the MAC will square off on Friday as Ohio hosts Toledo.
The Bobcats sit atop the MAC, as they are currently 5-0 in conference play. Meanwhile, the Rockets may have six wins, but they suffered a loss on the road to Kent State.
Both teams have been impressive so far this year, with Toledo currently at 14-4 on the season and Ohio at 14-2. But when it comes to the spread, Toledo has been significantly better, as it’s currently 6-1 ATS in conference play and 5-0 ATS in its last five.
Ohio is just 3-2 ATS in conference and 3-2 over the last five.
The Rockets have also been great on the road, posting a record of 8-3 ATS.
Toledo did beat Ohio in the regular season last year, but the Bobcats would get the win when it mattered most. Ohio beat No. 1 seed Toledo 87-80 in the MAC Tournament semifinals on its way to winning the championship.
Outside of that tournament game, Toledo has won five in a row over the Bobcats.
Toledo has not been to the NCAA Tournament since 1980, and if it wants to get there, it will need to win the MAC Tournament. Handing Ohio its first conference loss would be a great step in the right direction to once again securing the one seed and placing itself in the best position to reach the Big Dance.
But these Rockets are well aware of that, as three starters return from the team that had its dreams cut short by Ohio last year.
In its last contest, Toledo made quick work of Ball State, out-shooting the Cardinals from the floor. First team All-MAC selection Ryan Rollins was the driving force in the Rockets’ 83-70 win, racking up 24 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists against the Cardinals.
Offensively, the Rockets are the 30th-best scoring team in the country, averaging 77.9 points per game. They are even better as team at the free throw line, as they rank 11th nationally, hitting 79.4% of opportunities.
However, there are some areas in which the Rockets will struggle to match up against Ohio. Toledo has made a point to work inside to the basket, with 53.2% of its points coming from 2-point shots.
Ohio’s defense, meanwhile, tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. The Rockets do their best shooting from 3-point range and the Bobcats have done some of their best defending in that some area.
Ranking 69th in college basketball, the Bobcats are allowing teams to shoot just 30.8% from beyond the arc.
When it comes to rebounding, Toledo has been able to pull down a lot of misses. The Rockets rank 14th nationally, as they’re averaging 40.4 rebounds per contest.
However, they have struggled to make them count at the offensive end, as they’re rated 263rd nationally in second-chance conversion percentage.
Toledo ranks 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency and has been able to limit teams to an effective field goal percentage of just 46.7%. But it has done this behind pure defense, so the Bobcats shouldn’t have to worry about the Rockets looking to force turnovers.
Toledo’s defense ranks 305th in Division 1 in turnover percentage at 16.3%. It also ranks 163rd in scoring defense, allowing the opposition to post 69.2 points per game.
The Bobcats returned four starters from a team that upset Virginia in the first round of the tournament last year. And while a 14-2 record is impressive enough, what’s even more noteworthy is who their only losses have come against — Kentucky and LSU.
Their most impressive win, however, was their first of the season, beating Belmont, 92-80. Since that win, the Bobcats have not beaten a team ranked inside the top 100, per KenPom
They will have another opportunity at that against Toledo.
Ohio ranks 92nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and is averaging 73.3 points per game. The Bobcats aren’t a great 3-point shooting team, but they take a ton, and are making enough to be respectable. The Bobcats take 25.8 3s per game on average and are hitting at 33.7%.
On defense, the Bobcats rank 79th in adjusted defensive efficiency, but they are allowing teams to post an effective field goal percentage of 48.3%. One area they can take advantage of against the Rockets will be turnovers.
But it won’t be easy.
Toledo is giving up a turnover on just 16.2% of possessions. The Bobcats defense is forcing turnovers on 21% of possessions. If they can make an impact in the turnover margin, it could be a deciding factor in this game.
Toledo vs. Ohio Betting Pick
Ohio is a great team, and I have no doubt this will be a tough environment for Toledo to play in. But the Rockets are coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder after their tournament hopes were crushed by Ohio last year.
The Rockets have also been a great team on the road, posting an ATS record of 8-3.
With those factors in mind, I’ll back the Rockets to get their revenge. I was able to get Toledo at +4.5, but I would take it as low as +3.5