College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions for USC vs. Oregon State (Thursday, February 24)
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images. Pictured: Isaiah Mobley.
- The Trojans visit Corvallis as heavy road favorites against Oregon State.
- The Beavers are looking for a signature win as they have had a rough season after reaching the Elite Eight last year.
- Our analyst breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
USC vs. Oregon State Odds
-110o / -110u
|Oregon State Odds|
-110o / -110u
Oregon State has followed up its Elite Eight appearance with one of the worst seasons in program history.
The Beavers have won just three of its 25 games this season. Wayne Tinkle’s group has some horrid losses to Samford, UC Davis, and Princeton among many others.
Oregon State opened the season with a 10-game losing streak. The program has now topped that mark by dropping a dozen conference games in a row. That streak is set to continue as the Beavers welcome in USC.
The Trojans are rolling this season with a 23-4 record after only dropping games to Arizona, Oregon, and Stanford. USC owns the second seed in the Pac-12 thanks to its victory over UCLA. The program is slated to be a six-seed in the NCAA tournament according to Joe Lunardi’s bracketology.
USC will want to avoid a slip-up down the stretch that would harm its seeding. That won’t be much of a concern in this matchup as USC is poised for a wire-to-wire victory over Oregon State.
The way you beat this USC defense is by catching fire from beyond the arc because you aren’t scoring inside the paint. Four of the five USC starters stand at six-foot-nine or taller. That height has led USC to the top 2-point defense in the nation by holding opponents to 40% shooting.
Opponents often settle for 3-point attempts against USC to prevent going inside. On Saturday Washington State took 31 of its 63 shot attempts from 3-point territory. They hit 48% of those 3-point attempts, but it still wasn’t enough to take down USC thanks to Boogie Ellis’ buzzer beater.
.@BoogieEllis. GAME TIME ⏰
(via @USC_Hoops) pic.twitter.com/aEdoH17PfN
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) February 21, 2022
USC has started to shoot the ball better from the perimeter over its last three games. The Trojans have connected on 23-of-51 (45%) during that span. That’s a mild improvement over the 35% outside shooting the team has averaged.
But the program does most of its damage around the rim, as that’s where 68% of the shot attempts come from. USC hits on over 51% of its 2-point attempts this season, but the Trojans have also been dominant at extending possessions. The program snatches offensive rebounds on 34% of its misses, which ranks 32nd in the nation. USC should find plenty of second chance opportunities against a Oregon State defense that ranks 338th in securing defensive boards.
Oregon State has proven to be the worst Power Five program in the country. The Beavers currently own the 235th spot according to Kenpom and are surrounded in the rankings by mid-major programs.
The defense has been putrid, allowing opponents to score inside the paint at will. The Beavers rank 299th in Defensive Efficiency and allow opponents to hit 54% from the field – 333rd in the country. Now they welcome in a USC team that is the fourth tallest team in the nation. The Trojans do most of their damage inside the paint and will surely utilize rheir height advantage in this matchup.
The Beavers have relied on finding their buckets inside the perimeter, ranking eighth in the nation with 60% of its points coming from 2-point territory. That again spells trouble as USC owns the best 2-point defense in the nation by holding opponents to just 40% on such attempts.
The lack of outside shooting threats has doomed Oregon State. The program has converted on just 30% of its 3-point attempts on the year which ranks 326th in the nation. Jarod Lucas is the only player on the roster who has proven to hit an outside shot consistently. Removing him from the equation, and the rest of the Beavers are shooting just 27% from deep.
USC vs. Oregon State Betting Pick
It’s hard to have imagined this kind of miserable season from Oregon State after its Elite Eight run last March. But here we are, with the Beavers staring down a potential 3-27 season if they can’t find a victory down the stretch.
They surely won’t find one in this matchup against USC. The Trojans present one of the worst matchups for the Beavers. USC has made its living in the paint this season where it finds 56% of its points. The Beavers have no chance of slowing down the USC bigs as they own the 340th ranked 2-point defense.
USC snags offensive rebounds on 34% of its misses this season while Oregon State ranks 329th in securing defensive boards.
On the other end of the floor Oregon State is reliant on scoring inside the paint while USC has the best 2-point defense in the country due to its size.
It’s hard to imagine a path for Oregon State to keep this game close, especially as the season has already spiraled out of salvation for the Beavers.
Pick: USC -10 (Play to -11.5)
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