Thursday College Basketball PRO Report: Sharps Hitting Belmont vs. Austin Peay (Jan. 28)
Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Belmont standout Nick Muszynski.
College Basketball Odds: Belmont vs. Austin Peay
|Austin Peay Odds||+5.5|
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
As you might have discovered from reading similarly-headlined posts on this website, sharp bettors don’t care too much about the hype surrounding the games they bet. They’re looking simply for value, whether it be from a matchup between Gonzaga and Baylor or … Belmont and Austin Peay.
It’s not just sharps providing reason to think this game is worth betting, though. According to our PRO Report, a few more value indicators are lit up on the same side of the Ohio Valley matchup.
Let’s take a look.
Note: Odds, data as of 1 p.m. ET.
College Basketball Sharp Betting Pick: Belmont vs. Austin Peay
As you might expect, a 10-0 in-conference record for Belmont has most bettors laying the points tonight. Yet, even with the majority of tickets hitting that side, this line has fallen from -6.5 to -5.5 and even -5 in several spots, which should tell you something about the Austin Peay bettors.
Three Bet Signals from Action Labs — which reveal instances of market movement caused specifically by sharp action — have been triggered on Austin Peay, confirming the sharp backing of the home underdog.
Sharp Action edge: Austin Peay
History is on Austin Peay’s side, as well, given its inferior against-the-spread record in this matchup. While that might seem like a bad thing, it’s actually led to such teams being undervalued in the betting market.
Our Poor ATS vs. Good ATS Teams PRO System — which Austin Peay fits tonight — has returned a 55% cover rate on a sample of more than 3,400 games since 2005.
PRO Systems edge: Austin Peay
And even though this line has already moved as much as 1.5 points in many spots, our model still suggests significant betting value on Austin Peay.
It pegs the true spread at Belmont -3.6, leaving almost two points of remaining value on the underdog at +5.5.
Model Projections edge: Austin Peay
Sharps aren’t the only ones betting Austin Peay, either. Our college basketball experts are also on board, and you can follow all their picks by downloading the free Action App. You’ll get real-time notifications so you never miss a valuable line move.
Top Experts edge: Austin Peay